Remember Jack Abramoff? Adam Kidan was his business partner. They did time together over the casino boat racket in Florida. Trump pardoned Kidan last July, whereupon Kidan started spreading some contribution love around to various Republicans. Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie sent back Kidan’s $2,600 “to avoid even an appearance of impropriety,” so good for Rep Mackenzie, but a good chunk of Kidak Kash found its way to 8 GOP Senate candidates. The biggest benefactor? Michael Whatley, at $14,000.
I don’t know exactly how much you can tell about a man by the company he keeps… but it sure seems like Michael Whatley keeps some sketchy AF company.
I’m a door knocker and I’ve wondered if it really makes a difference when I see candidates spending so much time courting money and so little time courting door knocker volunteers. Your article has renewed my enthusiasm for canvassing. Thanks for giving me hope.
Very accurate analysis. However, be cautious of any poll. The interesting races in NC are Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, fst and 11th US House Districts and whether the Republican majority in the NC General Assembly is thinned
High oil prices do not guarantee Iran a payday. Oil only makes money when it moves. If exports are blocked, a higher price means little.
Republicans may be facing the same truth. They point to fundraising, ad buys, past races, and hopeful polls. None of those things are votes. A campaign cannot cash checks at the ballot box.
Traders can drive oil prices higher on fear. Political operatives can keep supporters hopeful with spin. For a while, both can look like strength. But appearances are not reality.
In the end, the market does not care about the story traders tell. Voters do not care about the story campaigns tell. Reality arrives for both.
The lesson is the same. What looks like strength can hide weakness. High oil prices do not help Iran if it cannot sell oil. Money and message discipline do not help Republicans if voters have already decided they want change. The question is not who sounds confident. The question is who benefits when hope collides with reality.
And then there were those “PSAs” that were “Paid for by the US Government”. Illegal (probably) but as Napoleon famously said “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” The last one was a clumsy reboot of one of DJT’s 2024 ads, where he tells people how he’s going to bring down prices and get the “warmongers” out of government. And the pope that’s aimed at? It’s not squishy Democrats or Independents (because there aren’t any), that’s playing directly to his base — who is sitting there maybe not really recalling everything he promised them and didn’t deliver, and he’s doing us the favor of reminding them.
I haven’t seen a poll in anything resembling recent memory that ha Cooper up by less than a Half Stein. And a few of them put him at a Full Stein (which I think is overly optimistic, but anything is possible in this economy).
And if anybody thinks to remind people that the *worst* parts of the OBuBBA bill were timed to hit *after* the midterms, when things are already about as grim as most living people have ever seen, that 29% you saw last week will keep cratering until there’s no floor left.
Tillis also was a strong closer. He took advantage of any breaks he got and undecideds broke late for him. Whatley is Trump's sock puppet, and the puppet master is flailing.
IIRC, Cunningham never actually got to the point of whipping it out, just talking about it in text chats. But my memory is not to be trusted. And he definitely didn’t tempe his rhetorical pants zipped.
Remember Jack Abramoff? Adam Kidan was his business partner. They did time together over the casino boat racket in Florida. Trump pardoned Kidan last July, whereupon Kidan started spreading some contribution love around to various Republicans. Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie sent back Kidan’s $2,600 “to avoid even an appearance of impropriety,” so good for Rep Mackenzie, but a good chunk of Kidak Kash found its way to 8 GOP Senate candidates. The biggest benefactor? Michael Whatley, at $14,000.
I don’t know exactly how much you can tell about a man by the company he keeps… but it sure seems like Michael Whatley keeps some sketchy AF company.
See: https://dworkin.substack.com/p/trump-pardoned-abramoffs-partner
I’m a door knocker and I’ve wondered if it really makes a difference when I see candidates spending so much time courting money and so little time courting door knocker volunteers. Your article has renewed my enthusiasm for canvassing. Thanks for giving me hope.
Very accurate analysis. However, be cautious of any poll. The interesting races in NC are Supreme Court, Court of Appeals, fst and 11th US House Districts and whether the Republican majority in the NC General Assembly is thinned
Simon Rosenberg interviewed Jamie Ager for his substack, Hopium Chronicles:
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/jamie-ager-one-of-our-very-best-candidates
High oil prices do not guarantee Iran a payday. Oil only makes money when it moves. If exports are blocked, a higher price means little.
Republicans may be facing the same truth. They point to fundraising, ad buys, past races, and hopeful polls. None of those things are votes. A campaign cannot cash checks at the ballot box.
Traders can drive oil prices higher on fear. Political operatives can keep supporters hopeful with spin. For a while, both can look like strength. But appearances are not reality.
In the end, the market does not care about the story traders tell. Voters do not care about the story campaigns tell. Reality arrives for both.
The lesson is the same. What looks like strength can hide weakness. High oil prices do not help Iran if it cannot sell oil. Money and message discipline do not help Republicans if voters have already decided they want change. The question is not who sounds confident. The question is who benefits when hope collides with reality.
And then there were those “PSAs” that were “Paid for by the US Government”. Illegal (probably) but as Napoleon famously said “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” The last one was a clumsy reboot of one of DJT’s 2024 ads, where he tells people how he’s going to bring down prices and get the “warmongers” out of government. And the pope that’s aimed at? It’s not squishy Democrats or Independents (because there aren’t any), that’s playing directly to his base — who is sitting there maybe not really recalling everything he promised them and didn’t deliver, and he’s doing us the favor of reminding them.
I haven’t seen a poll in anything resembling recent memory that ha Cooper up by less than a Half Stein. And a few of them put him at a Full Stein (which I think is overly optimistic, but anything is possible in this economy).
And if anybody thinks to remind people that the *worst* parts of the OBuBBA bill were timed to hit *after* the midterms, when things are already about as grim as most living people have ever seen, that 29% you saw last week will keep cratering until there’s no floor left.
Tillis also was a strong closer. He took advantage of any breaks he got and undecideds broke late for him. Whatley is Trump's sock puppet, and the puppet master is flailing.
Tillis was lucky. And he managed to (mostly) not step on his crank long enough to hold on.
And Cal Cunningham couldn't keep his own crank in his pants.
IIRC, Cunningham never actually got to the point of whipping it out, just talking about it in text chats. But my memory is not to be trusted. And he definitely didn’t tempe his rhetorical pants zipped.