Heading toward the final stretch, the NC GOP is still struggling

Cooper leads Whatley and Democrats lead generic legislative ballot.

Carolina Forward, the progressive advocacy and research organization, has a new poll out showing Republicans still mired in a tough political environment. With less than 90 days before the election, time is running out for the GOP to turn things around. The poll also offers a few warning signs for Democrats.

Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley in the US Senate race by seven points, 50-43. In poll after poll, Cooper has held a lead outside the margin of error, but rarely above 50%. Whatley’s supporters hope that Cooper has a low ceiling and they’re probably right, but Cooper’s ceiling will be higher than Whatley’s.

Whatley is both unpopular and unknown. His favorability is underwater by eight points and 17% of voters have never heard of him. Cooper, in contrast, has a favorability rating of +2 and virtually universal name recognition. Whatley is still undefined while voters know Cooper and generally like him.

On the generic legislative ballot, voters prefer Democrats by seven points. That might tighten as we get closer to the election, but Democrats will head into the post-Labor Day scramble in a solid position. I don’t think Republicans will have super-majorities in either chamber after the election.

Voters seem to be happy with their choices of Democrats after the 2024 election. Governor Josh Stein and Attorney General Jeff Jackson both have strong favorability ratings, 48-42 and 51-23 respectively. In contrast, voters have remorse about top-of-the-ticket Republicans. Trump is underwater by 14 points, Senator Thom Tillis by 42, and Senator Ted Budd by 17. If Cooper wins this year, Budd will be a top target in 2028.

The poll also shows that Democrats could have trouble in North Carolina if they embrace the party’s left flank. They need the state if they hope to capture the White House. Democratic Socialists are underwater by 28 points with only 22% of voters having a positive view of them. Their favorability is less than 50% even among Democrats. They are less popular than ICE or MAGA.

In addition, AOC and New York Mayor Mamdani are less popular than JD Vance or Marco Rubio. If Democrats nominate a candidate too far to the left in 2028, North Carolina will likely not be in play.

We are still a state where candidates and parties need to persuade a lot of moderate voters. The poll indicates that a plurality of voters, 36%, consider themselves independents, with 13% being “pure independents” who don’t lean toward either party. That’s a lot of persuadable voters.

Democrats in North Carolina are in great shape on the cusp of the final push to Election Day. They lead in the US Senate race and on the generic ballot. It would take a major shift in the political environment to change the trajectory, but we’ve seen such shifts in recent election cycles.

That said, the state is still very purple and Democrats should not get too confident. Voters are more angry at Republicans than they are pining for Democrats. They want prices to go down and wages to go up. They aren’t looking for a socialist revolution.