Josh Stein is winning

Robinson's campaign appears to be collapsing and Stein could have coattails.

A couple of polls this week show Kamala Harris tied or leading Donald Trump in North Carolina That’s right. After Biden has trailed by relatively large margins most of the year, Harris has closed the gap in just three weeks. In addition, both polls shows Josh Stein with a growing lead over Mark Robinson outside of the margin of error.

First, my caveat. I don’t really trust polls anymore. I more trust trends and two polls is not a trend. I also respect margins of error. I suspect Harris has made up ground in the state and that Stein has extended his margin. We’re back to where presidential contests usually are in North Carolina—neck-and-neck.

That said, the polls are good for Democrats. The Carolina Forward poll that dropped on Monday shows Harris and Trump tied. In their May poll, Trump led Biden by two points. The poll shows Josh Stein leading Mark Robinson by a whopping 10 points. Their May poll had the two within the margin of error.

The Cook Political Report released its Battleground poll of seven swing states. Overall, Harris leads by two across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In North Carolina, Harris also leads by two, 46-44. In May, Trump led by eight points over Biden. In the governor’s race, Cooke has Stein up eight points on Robinson.

I think the numbers in the governor’s race indicate that Robinson’s campaign is collapsing. The ads against Robinson are all in his own words. He tells voters, on video and in writing, that he’s extreme, that he’s divisive, that he lacks respect for certain people he’s supposed to represent, and that he lacks the temperament to serve as governor. I suspect he’ll join the list of Republicans too extreme to win competitive races, people like Christine “I am not a witch” O’Donnell and Todd “legitimate rape” Akins whose own words sank their campaigns.

There’s still a long way to go and Robinson could recover, but he’s got an uphill climb. His campaign needs to make Stein as unattractive as Robinson is and that’s a tough row to hoe. So far, they’ve been trying to make Stein out to be a far-left extremist, but that’s just not believable. North Carolina voters have chosen Stein twice to serve as attorney general and there’s been very little controversy over those eight years. They have no credible evidence to back up their claims.

A successful hit on Stein will have to be true, believable, and terrible. Former Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards famously and crudely said, “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.” Stein’s headed toward that territory.

Stein’s numbers and Robinson’s candidacy present a problem for Trump, too. There are only so many crossover voters in North Carolina. In 2020, Governor Roy Cooper won by 4.5% and Trump won by 1.3%. If Stein wins by six percent or more, I think it’s very hard for Trump to win the state. Stein’s margin will pull Harris across the line. That’s where the reverse coattails come into play.

Right now, pundits are pointing out that Trump over-performed his polling in both 2020 and 2016. That’s true in North Carolina. In 2020, the Real Clear Politics average had Trump leading by .2% when he won by 1.3%. The 538 average had Biden winning by 1.8%.

However, polls test likely voters based on projected turnout and in 2020, the electorate turned out to be much more favorable for Trump, at least in North Carolina, than most analysts expected. Republican turnout soared to 82% and registered voters over 65 years old, a major Trump constituency, voted at a whopping 84%. In contrast, African American voters dropped to 68%, well below the overall turnout of 75%, and younger voters turned out at less than 65%, almost 20 points lower than their older counterparts. I suspect that turnout at least partially explains why Trump over-performed four years ago.

This year, Harris may fix the turnout problems Democrats had in 2020 in North Carolina. She’s clearly engaged both African American voters and younger voters. She also has much more appeal among Hispanic voters who are emerging in North Carolina as a major voting block. The number of registered Hispanic voters in the state has increased by more than 80,000 since 2020 to more than 300,000 voters. A recent Equis poll of Hispanic voters shows Harris with a 19 point lead in the battleground states.

I also don’t think Trump has as motivated a base as he had four years ago. His convictions have taken at least some toll on him, even if just around the margins. His most recent appearances are not helping his campaign. He’s looking increasingly old, cranky, and unhinged, whining about crowd size and telling lies. He’s not exciting anybody.

The days since Joe Biden left the race have been the most extraordinary period I’ve witnessed in politics. The electorate has shifted in a record amount of time toward Kamala Harris. She’s created the energy to spawn a movement around her candidacy. She’s struck exactly the right tone, capturing the imagination of the people she needs to win the election. Young people who would likely have taken a pass on voting are now enthusiastically supporting her. African American, Hispanic and Asian voters whose support for Biden seemed lackluster compared to 2020 have shifted toward her. Her team gets credit for making no visible mistakes while making smart choices. She clearly has momentum.

While these are heady days, I don’t quite trust them yet. We are learning a lot of lessons right now and one of them is that a major event really can shift an election in a matter of weeks, if not days. It could happen again. I can’t imagine what, but something could shift the electorate either against Harris or for Trump just as quickly.

That said, I’d much rather be Harris than Trump.

The Republican bubble

On another note, it’s interesting to watch Republicans and conservatives retreating into a comfortable world of their own making. In that world, the Harris momentum is a mirage. As one conservative writer tweeted, “Despite all the rhetoric, the "vibe" I sense most among the broader electorate is boredom, not panic or anger.” He may be right about the panic and anger, but the excitement among Democrats is not just palpable, it’s measurable in terms of low-dollar contributions, volunteer sign-ups, and surging poll numbers.

In that Republican bubble, Tim Walz is dragging the ticket down. Democrats are on the verge of replacing him. The stolen valor accusations that have been debunked are sticking. Putting tampons in school bathrooms is hurting the ticket. And finally, Walz joke about “white guy tacos,” ones with nothing but hamburger and cheese, makes Walz a blatant racist. In the bubble, it’s hard to see how Walz will make it through the convention next week.

Outside the bubble, Walz and the campaign have put to rest most of the accusations. The Trump campaign’s obsession with him is giving Harris, who is the one garnering the most attention, the freedom to operate unobstructed. Harris is continuing to improve her numbers in polls and Walz has a favorability rating higher than any of the four people in the race. If you’re a Republican, reality sucks so just avoid it.

The GOP bubble would be funny except that it’s setting up 2024’s election denialism. Republicans are telling themselves that Harris is collapsing, Trump is surging, and they are cruising to an easy victory. If reality strikes in November and Trump loses, they are emotionally unprepared. They’ll scream as loud as they did in 2020. That’s why Harris needs a landslide.