You are correct in noting the momentum toward the Dems in our state, but allow me some quibbles.
I wouldnt put a lot of stock in the Carolina Forward poll as they are a left of center advocacy group, anymore than say Rasmussen which always polls to the right. There are four polls that have come in since Harris' assuming the candidacy, and…
You are correct in noting the momentum toward the Dems in our state, but allow me some quibbles.
I wouldnt put a lot of stock in the Carolina Forward poll as they are a left of center advocacy group, anymore than say Rasmussen which always polls to the right. There are four polls that have come in since Harris' assuming the candidacy, and you only mentioned Cook, specifically in that they show Harris ahead, but the other three still showed Trump ahead so the current RCP aggregate is Trump +2.4.
For the same reason the Carolina Forward showing Stein +10 is suspect and the three non partisan polls has him +4-5 and not really changing. That is some concern as in 2020 Cooper finished +11.0 in the RCP aggregate but only won by +4.4 with a large 6.6 Dem overestimation.
Also, you gave reasonable reasons why the polls might not over estimate the Dems as much as they did in 2016 and 2020, but though speculative I still am leaning to expect the same forces to have some Dem bias.
You are correct in noting the momentum toward the Dems in our state, but allow me some quibbles.
I wouldnt put a lot of stock in the Carolina Forward poll as they are a left of center advocacy group, anymore than say Rasmussen which always polls to the right. There are four polls that have come in since Harris' assuming the candidacy, and you only mentioned Cook, specifically in that they show Harris ahead, but the other three still showed Trump ahead so the current RCP aggregate is Trump +2.4.
For the same reason the Carolina Forward showing Stein +10 is suspect and the three non partisan polls has him +4-5 and not really changing. That is some concern as in 2020 Cooper finished +11.0 in the RCP aggregate but only won by +4.4 with a large 6.6 Dem overestimation.
Also, you gave reasonable reasons why the polls might not over estimate the Dems as much as they did in 2016 and 2020, but though speculative I still am leaning to expect the same forces to have some Dem bias.