Lean Democrat
Republicans face a difficult political environment with a weak candidate for US Senate.
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia moved the US Senate race in North Carolina to “Lean Democrat” from “Toss-up.” The move reflects the polling that has consistently shown former Governor Roy Cooper to hold a statistically significant lead over Trump toady Michael Whatley. It also highlights the poor political environment Republicans face.
A Whatley spokesman responded to the move, saying, “Every cycle dating back for more than a decade, national ‘experts’ and national journalists try to prop up Democrat Senators in NC, and every year those Democrats lose on Election Day.”
That’s some serious cope. I can’t remember any of the national prognosticators rating a US Senate race in North Carolina as lean anybody. Polling has been too favorable to Democrats, but only by a point or two. Cooper has held leads outside the margin of error since the race began.
In addition, this year is the first time since 2002 that a midterm US Senate race in North Carolina has taken place with a Republican in the White House. That alone should give people pause, but with a president as unpopular as Trump, the GOP should be absolutely terrified. Midterms are almost always a referendum on the president’s administration and Trump is underwater by 15 points according to the latest Carolina Journal poll.
Whatley has also turned out to be a very poor candidate. He might do well with insiders in the GOP, but he lacks the political skills to be a top-tier candidate. Instead of reading the environment he faces, he’s merely parroting everything Trump says. He needs to put some daylight between himself and Trump but instead keeps wrapping himself around the president.
The contrast between Cooper and Whatley is stark and the Cooper team has been exploiting the differences. While Whatley is defending Trump and making everything about politics, Cooper is the unofficial leader of the Caniacs as the Carolina Hurricanes vie for the Stanley Cup. He’s like the Tom Jensen of hockey. He’s bringing people together around a shared passion instead of dividing them with a demented president’s ramblings.
Democrats may not have won a Senate race since Kay Hagan won in 2008, but they also haven’t had a candidate like Cooper in a year like this one. Cooper is the most experienced statewide candidate since Jim Hunt. The political environment keeps getting worse for Republicans as inflation and wars dominate the national conversation while Trump sleeps through various meetings.
The move to “Lean Democrat” is warranted. The prognosticators won’t make it “Likely Democrat” because you never know what happens in politics, but by the fall, most will believe it’s Cooper’s race to lose. I’m betting Republicans never come into the state for Whatley with a significant spend. Instead, they will be protecting incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine and trying to hold Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and maybe Nebraska as the year gets worse for them.
Go, Coop! Go, Canes!
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