"They hope that Hall might be a partner, if an uneasy one, in maintaining the status quo in a state that is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans."
This simply isn’t true.
According to UNC-CH’s Carolina Demography site, the breakdown of North Carolina registered voters in 2024 was:
"They hope that Hall might be a partner, if an uneasy one, in maintaining the status quo in a state that is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans."
This simply isn’t true.
According to UNC-CH’s Carolina Demography site, the breakdown of North Carolina registered voters in 2024 was:
Both Democrats and Republicans are outnumbered by a hefty margin by unaffiliated voters - voters who aren’t seeing either party as strongly representing their interests.
NC state-wide elections are all about these unaffiliated voters. And the Dems aren’t making a case to attract them by throwing the poor, minorities, or women under the bus with a shrug as they sigh and say, “Oh well, nothing we can do. Sorry.”
I am a life long Democrat in NC. After the disaster of 45 formerly known as trump, I reregistered as unaffiliated. By doing so, I choose to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary during primary elections. I thought it would give me a way to vote against super right GOP candidates. Then I figured I’d vote Democratic in the general election. Well, I always chose to vote in the Democratic primary as I found I could not bear to vote for any GOP candidates. My point is, do not assume the unaffiliated voter is disenchanted with either side. It only means we understand the process. If the law changes back to closed primaries, I will realign with the Democrats immediately.
In NC, we're talking about almost 3 million independent voters. There's some intentional registration like this to vote in primaries, but I can't believe it accounts for all of it.
In January 2024, Gallop published findings indicating that, nationally, 27% of voters identity as Republican, 27% as Democratic, and a whopping 43% identified as independent voters. The trend has really accelerated since 2010.
Historically, when voters start abandoning the two major parties and go independent or joining third parties, it indicates a party realignment - voters see that the main parties don't match their interests and they start drifting away. Usually, voters sort themselves out and predominantly coalesce into two major parties again when parties start shifting emphasis and priorities to match what voters are looking for.
The last major party shifts happened before FDR and Reagan.
The Democrats haven't essentially changed their priorities since Bill Clinton was in office thirty years ago, when his "Let's compromise on big government and minority rights to get things done" elected him to two terms.
"Let's compromise on big government and minority rights to get things done" isn't a message that really wins large majorities for Democrats these days.
I don't have good proof of this - it would need some more research - but it looks like the GOP or groups like Moms for Liberty are getting Republicans to switch to Unaffiliated registrations so they can be placed on local boards and advisory committees as someone "neutral".
One library advisory board in my area started introducing Moms for Liberty-style policies to get all LGBTQ books in the library marked with warning stickers. Turns out that the Republican county commissioners appointed two Republicans to the library's advisory committee (the chair and vice-chair), one Democrat, and the rest "unaffiliated".
I looked up the unaffiliated advisory board members and they were previously Republican and changed their affiliation to unaffiliated in the past four years. Since then, they've voted in the GOP primary.
So the county commissioners can say they're not stacking the advisory board ("They're unaffiliated!") but completely stack the thing with shadow Republicans.
This is what you get when you try to compromise with the GOP.
"They hope that Hall might be a partner, if an uneasy one, in maintaining the status quo in a state that is evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans."
This simply isn’t true.
According to UNC-CH’s Carolina Demography site, the breakdown of North Carolina registered voters in 2024 was:
“2,886,573 or 38% were registered unaffiliated;
2,413,469 or 32% were registered Democrat;
2,285,377 or 30% were registered Republican; and
72,300 or 0.94% were registered to another party”
https://carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu/2024/10/10/who-are-north-carolinas-7-6-million-registered-voters-2024/
Both Democrats and Republicans are outnumbered by a hefty margin by unaffiliated voters - voters who aren’t seeing either party as strongly representing their interests.
NC state-wide elections are all about these unaffiliated voters. And the Dems aren’t making a case to attract them by throwing the poor, minorities, or women under the bus with a shrug as they sigh and say, “Oh well, nothing we can do. Sorry.”
I am a life long Democrat in NC. After the disaster of 45 formerly known as trump, I reregistered as unaffiliated. By doing so, I choose to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary during primary elections. I thought it would give me a way to vote against super right GOP candidates. Then I figured I’d vote Democratic in the general election. Well, I always chose to vote in the Democratic primary as I found I could not bear to vote for any GOP candidates. My point is, do not assume the unaffiliated voter is disenchanted with either side. It only means we understand the process. If the law changes back to closed primaries, I will realign with the Democrats immediately.
In NC, we're talking about almost 3 million independent voters. There's some intentional registration like this to vote in primaries, but I can't believe it accounts for all of it.
In January 2024, Gallop published findings indicating that, nationally, 27% of voters identity as Republican, 27% as Democratic, and a whopping 43% identified as independent voters. The trend has really accelerated since 2010.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx
Historically, when voters start abandoning the two major parties and go independent or joining third parties, it indicates a party realignment - voters see that the main parties don't match their interests and they start drifting away. Usually, voters sort themselves out and predominantly coalesce into two major parties again when parties start shifting emphasis and priorities to match what voters are looking for.
The last major party shifts happened before FDR and Reagan.
The Democrats haven't essentially changed their priorities since Bill Clinton was in office thirty years ago, when his "Let's compromise on big government and minority rights to get things done" elected him to two terms.
"Let's compromise on big government and minority rights to get things done" isn't a message that really wins large majorities for Democrats these days.
I also believe many people are keeping their affiliation closer to the vest to avoid recriminations at work locations and in their neighborhoods.
I don't have good proof of this - it would need some more research - but it looks like the GOP or groups like Moms for Liberty are getting Republicans to switch to Unaffiliated registrations so they can be placed on local boards and advisory committees as someone "neutral".
One library advisory board in my area started introducing Moms for Liberty-style policies to get all LGBTQ books in the library marked with warning stickers. Turns out that the Republican county commissioners appointed two Republicans to the library's advisory committee (the chair and vice-chair), one Democrat, and the rest "unaffiliated".
I looked up the unaffiliated advisory board members and they were previously Republican and changed their affiliation to unaffiliated in the past four years. Since then, they've voted in the GOP primary.
So the county commissioners can say they're not stacking the advisory board ("They're unaffiliated!") but completely stack the thing with shadow Republicans.
This is what you get when you try to compromise with the GOP.
You're spot on.