Noodling with numbers in North Carolina

A poll of unaffiliated voters gives a peek into what will likely happen in North Carolina.

2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina by county.

We’re coming down to the wire. Election Day is less than three weeks away, and in-person early voting begins tomorrow in North Carolina. Opinions are basically set, and any changes will be at the margins. About this time in the cycle, I get a bit obsessed with trying to figure out what is going to happen.

A poll commissioned by my buddy Gary Pearce has helped me scratch my itch. Gary actually did two polls—one of rural voters and one of unaffiliated voters. I was especially interested in the unaffiliated voters. I’ll probably write about the rural poll later.

According to Gary’s poll, unaffiliated voters favor Roy Cooper over Michael Whatley by 15 points. That number seems key to understanding how the race will turn out. Intuitively, it also seems about right. I expect Gary’s poll is the largest sample of unaffiliated likely voters done this cycle. They interviewed 1,154 people.

I wrote about the East Carolina University poll earlier this week. It has Cooper winning self-described independents by 16 points. I looked at a couple of polls that have Cooper up by double digits, and they have him leading among independents by around 30 points or so. I hope it’s true, but I don’t believe it. Throughout this exercise, I’ve leaned on the most conservative numbers I could justify—if anything, I’m understating Cooper’s position, not inflating it.

Understanding where Cooper is among unaffiliated voters gives us a road map to the potential scenarios for this election. According to the State Board of Elections, Republicans turned out at 58% in both 2018 and 2022, the last two midterm elections. Their registration has been steady, so we can expect them to vote at 58% again this year.

There are currently 2,330,643 registered Republicans. If they turn out at 58%, 1,351,773 will vote this year.

Unaffiliated voters turned out at 46% in 2018 and 45% in 2022. I suspect that will stay about the same. There are 3,168,005 of them registered now, so at 46% turnout, 1,457,282 will vote.

Democrats are the wild card. In 2018, 54.5% of Democrats voted. In 2022, only 51% voted. There are 2,331,133 registered. If they turn out at 55% this year, 1,282,123 Democrats will vote—almost 70,000 fewer than Republicans.

Democrats will win anyway, because of unaffiliated voters breaking their way. But turnout only gets us partway. The margin comes from how each group splits its vote.

Give Cooper 97% of Democrats and just 5% of Republicans—a few points of crossover each way, which is modest for a six-time statewide winner against a little-known opponent—and split the unaffiliated 58-42, matching Gary’s 15-point margin. Run the numbers and Cooper takes about 53% of the two-party vote to Whatley’s 47%, a six-point win. If Democrats can push their turnout up to match Republicans at 58%, Cooper wins by eight. Third parties will likely take about three points, so on the full ballot the margin looks more like 51-45.

Republican turnout could drop, but I don’t think it will—or if it does, not by much. They are older, more reliable voters. Their turnout has been consistent in midterms.

Unaffiliated voters could vote in higher numbers, but they don’t have a history of doing so. I suspect 45% or 46% is about right. If it does get significantly higher, Cooper could do a little better.

Democrats have the less reliable base. Their younger voters, who give Democrats their widest margins, never top 40% turnout. Pushing them above that this year could give Democrats bigger margins.

Gary’s poll shows Democrats with a 13-point advantage on the legislative generic ballot among unaffiliated voters, similar to Cooper’s 15-point lead. That’s certainly enough to break the veto-proof majorities in both chambers, but Democrats will probably need to push up turnout to capture the House or Senate.

I don’t think opinions change much between now and Election Day. There are too few undecided voters left, and too little time, to move things far from where they are now. The game in North Carolina should shift from persuasion to turnout. Democrats will likely have a good year. Boosting turnout could make it a great one.