North Carolina is really in play this year

In 2020 and 2022, Democrats' commitment in North Carolina was tempered

Again, I just have to start by laughing at Republicans. Donald Trump, former President of the United States, is selling “God bless the USA” bibles to help pay for his legal bills. He’s like a character out of a Carl Hiaasan novel come to life, except he’s taken Florida nationwide. The guy has no shame and he’s stripped all honor and decency from the GOP, leaving a party of sycophants and cynics willing to debase themselves to stay in his favor. He sees all the people in MAGA as his marks, not just his followers. He’s taking advantage of people who aren’t very bright, pilfering their meager earnings to support an extravagant lifestyle. He’s just a TV preacher, fleecing his flock.

If you’re a Republican and you look at Trump and say, “That’s my guy,” then you need to carefully examine yourself. Try to imagine yourself back in 2014 or so and ask yourself, “Would I support a guy for president who paid hush money to a porn star, was convicted of sexual assault, encouraged a mob to attack the Capitol, tried to undermine the transfer of power, and now is selling bibles to fund his legal troubles?” If you answer “Yes,” then you’re lying to yourself and I really can’t do anything for you. But if you say, “Of course not,” which is the correct answer, then you need to do some soul searching to figure out how you sunk this low. There’s still a path to redemption, but it’s not through Donald Trump.

Back to something more serious than Donald Trump’s grift. On Tuesday, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris came to North Carolina. It was a rare joint visit and a signal that the Biden campaign is going to take North Carolina seriously. It’s nice to be back in the fold.

After Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, Democrats thought the state had hit a tipping point and was turning a bluer shade of purple, following the path of its northern neighbor. However, the 2010 Republican wave sent a shockwave through the state, giving Republicans control of the legislature for the first time since the nineteenth century. The 2012 election was worse, solidifying GOP control of the legislature for what might be decades and giving them the Governor’s Mansion and numerous council of state seats. Mitt Romney beat Obama here by about 2 points, ending any speculation about a serious shift to the left.

In 2016, Hilary Clinton spent real money and real time in the state. She lost by more than Obama in 2012 and Deb Ross was unable to unseat incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Richard Burr. However, the state fired its Republican governor and replaced him with Democrat Roy Cooper. Josh Stein kept the attorney general’s position in the Democratic column with the narrowest of victories. The state seemed to be reverting back to the pattern of voting for Republicans at the federal level and electing Democrats to helm the state.

The luster seemed to be gone for the national Democrats. In 2020, they paid lip service to the state, spending enough here to force Trump to campaign in the state, but not putting the full weight of a national effort into North Carolina. They did same thing in 2022, giving just enough support to Cheri Beasley for U.S. Senate to keep the race on the national radar, but not enough to really win.

This year, the race is different. Democrats are again looking seriously at the state. The visit by Biden and Harris was a clear message that they plan to set up shop in North Carolina. They are already building out the campaign and we should expect North Carolina to be a true battleground again.

So what changed? Well, not much really. A look under the hood shows a state that has been very slowly shifting Democrat since that Obama win in 2008, just not as fast people thought. Maybe 2024 will indicate the beginning of a tipping point, maybe not, but, eventually, demographics will probably turn North Carolina a more blue shade of purple.

Republicans have been winning the state based on very high turnout among an aging white base in rural North Carolina. They are dying and GOP areas are losing population. The fastest growing counties in the state are also the largest and becoming increasingly Democratic. At some point, the Democratic supporters will outnumber GOP voters even with lower turnout rates. Maybe this is the year, maybe not.

Despite all of the wishful thinking by Republican operatives and media types like Nate Silver and Nate Cohn, Republicans are not expanding their appeal. Their coalition is still almost all white and increasingly uneducated. Instead of reaching out to expand their coalition, they are doubling down on their base, at least in North Carolina. They’ve nominated a bunch people for statewide races whose political views are outside of the mainstream and have little to no practical experience governing.

In contrast, Democrats have nominated a remarkably strong council of state and judicial ticket. They have diversity that reflects the state and candidates with ties across North Carolina. Their candidates are also experienced and battled-tested, with most having won several elections at various levels of government.

For Democrats to win in the state, they need to have a well-funded and well-organized field operation. They need to increase turnout among younger voters in urban and suburban areas and that will take cajoling, not ads. They need to juice the turnout in Mecklenburg County in particular. That’s the job of Commissioner of Labor nominee and former Charlotte City Council memberBraxton Winston and Congressman Jeff Jackson who represents a large chunk of Mecklenburg County in Congress.

Democrats also need broad appeal to the middle. They need to define Republicans as the extremists that they are, making Mark Robinson and Michele Morrow run against themselves, denying they said what’s on tape or on social media. They need to make the case that the state Supreme Court is so extreme that they will soon deny women the right to reproductive health. Democrats have a strong candidate in Justice Allison Riggs and keeping her on the court is essential to building a majority that can protect individual rights. Democrats need to take advantage of all their candidates as they make the case that Republicans are extreme and out of touch.

The challenge for Democrats is matching GOP turnout. In 2020, more than 81% of registered Republicans turned out. Democrats need to keep their turnout within five percentage points or so of GOP turnout and then win the moderate swing voters by a solid margin.

In 2022, the moderates broke heavily for Cheri Beasley for Senate, but the base turnout fell. In 2024, moderates will almost certainly stick with Democrats given the quality of GOP candidates from president on down. The commitment of Biden and Harris gives them the resources to compete on the ground. We’ll see if North Carolina is ready to deliver for Democrats.