Now is not the time to start the 2026 campaign

Congressman Wiley Nickel is floating a trial balloon that should be popped--at least for now.

For about ten years, I used to joke that we knew when political season started in earnest in North Carolina when Roy Cooper officially declined to run for whatever top-of-the-ticket seat was open. He seemed content to serve as attorney general forever. In reality, he was probably taking a shrewd look at his chances and wasn’t going to tank his political career by losing a primary or running in a year when Democrats faced difficult headwinds.

When Cooper finally stepped up in 2016 to challenge incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory, he breathed life into a demoralized Democratic Party. He went on to defeat McCrory in a nail-biter and then won relatively handily in his re-election campaign in 2020. Cooper is seen by North Carolina Democrats as the clear leader of the party. He gave us hope at a time when it was in short supply.

This year, the speculation will return. Cooper is the most successful Democratic politician of his generation in North Carolina. His term as governor ends in at the end of this year. Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is among the most vulnerable U.S. Senators who is up for re-election in 2026. Control of the Senate might be at stake.

Cooper will leave office a remarkably popular governor in an age when few politicians have net positive approval ratings. He has a lot of options once his tenure is up, but a lot of Democrats, both here and nationally, will want him run against Tillis in 2026. That said, now is a time for reflection, not speculation.

Congressman Wiley Nickel, who was gerrymandered out of his seat, told Bloomberg News that he’s planning on announcing a U.S. Senate run by February. If he’s serious, Nickel is misreading the room. Nobody wants a campaign for 2026 to start right now. The Democratic Party is still trying to grapple with the fallout from the re-election of Donald Trump. Nickel should check his personal ambition and spend some time listening to people instead of launching a political campaign before the dust has settled from this one.

Besides, if Cooper wants to run, Democrats will quickly coalesce around his candidacy. He’s won six statewide elections including two when Donald Trump won the state. He’s got a team and network that’s both experienced and undefeated. After this election, he’s also got national attention. Cooper impressed Democrats across the country with his remarks introducing Kamala Harris to the nation before her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention. Had she won, he would have been on the short-list for attorney general.

But Cooper needs time to make his decision. He’s governor for another six weeks or so and he’s still got a job to do. Once he leaves office, he needs time to relax before determining what he wants to do next. The last eight years have not been easy. He deserves a rest and time for reflection. He should set the timeline, not Nickel.

If Cooper takes a pass, Nickel may prove to be a strong candidate, but, right now, he’s really an unknown quantity. He served a single term in Congress and has never run statewide. Other candidates may emerge as strong contenders. An open primary could be healthy if nobody is a clear frontrunner.

Nickel needs to reconsider rushing into 2026 and give Cooper some space. He’s not going to muscle the governor out of the race by declaring early. If he thinks he could beat Cooper in a primary, well, let’s just call him naive. If Nickel moves forward with his announcement before hearing from Cooper, I would urge Democratic donors to keep their wallets tight. We’ve got plenty of time until the next election.