Primary races

A short list of some of the races to watch.

It’s all over but the cryin’. Tomorrow is the primary election in North Carolina and nothing will change between now and then except the number of people who go to the polls. People’s minds are made up and outcomes rest in the hands of people who will vote on Election Day.

Polls are open from 6:30am to 7:30pm. If you don’t know where to go vote, this voter tool will give you the location. I would hope that if you’re tuned in enough to be reading this blog, you’ve either already voted or are planning to. If not, change your plans and cast a ballot.

The biggest race of the primary is a state senate race in Rockingham and Guilford Counties. President Pro-tem Phil Berger is in a fight for his political life. He’s the most powerful Republican in the state and he’s struggling against his own sheriff. If he loses, it’s a story for the ages.

Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page is the most popular politician in the county. He’s been in office for almost 28 years. One friend with ties to the area says that Page knows far more people personally in the county than Berger. He’s apparently a sheriff who spends more time in the field than in his office, making him a beloved figure.

Berger has built a political machine. He’s been in office for 25 years. He has one son on the county commission and another on the state Supreme Court. In an anti-incumbent age, the power he’s amassed may be a liability.

Berger and his dark money allies have spent an unprecedented amount of money trying to save his seat. I suspect it will be the most money spent in a legislative primary in North Carolina history. It may not matter in the relatively low-turnout affair.

The early vote numbers look pretty daunting for Berger. Almost two-thirds of the votes cast in the Republican primary so far have come from Rockingham County. Berger’s path to victory is winning Guilford by more than he loses Rockingham. He’ll need a hefty Election Day turnout in Guilford and hope that most of Page’s Rockingham supporters have already voted. It’s a barn burner.

Down in eastern North Carolina, five Republicans are vying to become the nominee in the latest Congressional district that the GOP is trying to rig. In a virtually unprecedented move, Republicans in the legislature bent over for Donald Trump and redrew Democrat Don Davis’s seat to make it more favorable for a Republican. Davis is running for re-election despite the longer odds.

The Republican field is well-heeled. Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army Colonel, is running again after narrowly losing to Davis in 2024. State Senator Bobby Hanig is in. So is Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck. Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse is also running after losing a race for Congress back in 2019. Finally, Ashley-Nicole Russell is a first-time candidate who was motivated to run by the assassination attempt on Charlie Kirk.

All of the candidates except Russell bring constituencies or past supporters to the race. I would guess there’s a good chance this one goes to a runoff with nobody garnering the 30% necessary to win the primary outright. It’s one to watch because the general election will be a top race to watch in the fight for control of Congress this fall.

When Republicans redrew Davis’s district, they made the neighboring NC-03 held by Republican Greg Murphy slightly more competitive. Two Democrats, Raymond Smith and Alison Jaslow, are vying to take on Murphy in November.

I don’t know much about the race, but I know a little about the candidates. Raymond Smith is a former legislator who has been around eastern North Carolina politics and government for years. Jaslow is an Iraq War veteran who has worked in Congress and for the Obama administration. She’s most recently been working with an advocacy organization representing veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

My take is that Jaslow would probably be a better general election candidate because she would raise the money and build the organization that could take advantage of opportunities that might arise in a wave election. Smith, though, is the stronger primary candidate because of his deep ties to his community and across the district. In a primary where a large portion of the electorate will likely be older African Americans, Smith has the advantage.

In the Triangle, incumbent Congresswoman Valerie Foushee is being challenged from the left by Nida Allam. The race is the most expensive House primary in history with more than $4.2 million in outside spending. It’s the epitome of what’s wrong with our campaign finance laws. The candidates are reduced to mere proxies for interest groups instead of real people doing the hard work of representing constituents.

Allam has the energy of young people and the national progressive zeitgeist behind her. She’s the choice of Bernie Sanders and her positions mirror those of left-leaning politicians like Zohran Mamdani. She also lives in Durham, home to the largest group of voters in the district.

Foushee is a more traditional Democrat who has spent most of her life working her way up in politics from the local level to Congress. Her politics is based more on personal relationships and understanding of issues than ideological adherence. She’s known more as a workhorse than a show horse. In a change election, her experience may be a liability.

The winner of the primary will represent the district because no Republican could win it.

In the mountains, Democrats have an emerging star to take on Chuck Edwards. Jamie Ager is running a stellar campaign that has put him on the DCCC target list. First, he has to get through a primary. None of his opponents has really emerged as a serious challenger, so Ager should be okay. I look forward to following his race once he’s the nominee. So should you.

While I don’t know the ins-and-outs of all the legislative primaries, there are a few to watch. In particular, Democrats are trying to enforce discipline in primaries by taking on incumbents who have been siding with Republicans, especially in overturning Governor Josh Stein’s vetoes.

In a Mecklenburg County race, incumbent state Representative Carla Cunningham is being challenged by Rodney Sadler. That one may have gotten the most attention because immigration has seeped into the conversation.

In another suburban Mecklenburg district, Valeria Levy, who has been around Democratic politics in the area for years, is challenging incumbent Nasif Majeed. Majeed is another Democrat who has sided with Republicans far more than his peers.

In northeastern North Carolina, Representative Shelley Willingham faces Patricia Smith. Smith says Willingham is disloyal for his six votes to override Stein’s vetoes.

The final race that I’m watching is another eastern North Carolina re-match. Representative Rodney Pierce defeated Michael Wray two years ago and now Wray wants his seat back. Democrats, including Stein, are lining up behind Pierce.

The more loyal Democrats believe that unity is key to pressuring Republicans. The ones who tend to vote with Republicans claim they are looking out for their districts. Others would say they get bought off. The outcome could determine how easily Democrats can sustain Stein’s veto power and force Republicans to the negotiating table on important issues.

There are other races, too, but I’m not informed enough to talk about them. Look up what’s on the ballot in your area and go vote. Our democracy depends upon it.