Reflections and predictions

Let's hope 2026 is a better year.

Happy New Year and good riddance to 2025. What a nasty year it was. I hope 2026 brings a bit of relief, though I suspect it will bring additional frustrations.

The country enters its 250th year at odds with itself. The high ideals that Thomas Jefferson articulated and that representatives of the thirteen original colonies ratified in the Declaration of Independence are being trampled. Those high-minded men would be appalled at the grifter in the White House and depressed to know that so many Americans support him.

Last year, I didn’t make any predictions. Instead, I wrote a post about our broken political system. The closest I made to predictions were warnings. I wrote:

“As 2024 draws to a close, we’re about start a new cycle of Republican incompetence. The GOP controls Congress by an even narrower majority and Trump’s only clear agenda is self-enrichment for his family and friends. Without another election in the offing, Trump is tossing MAGA overboard and lining up with the billionaires as open warfare breaks out between the racist and grifter wings of the GOP. He’s suddenly pro-immigration as long as it’s the immigrants who benefit people like his new BFF, Elon Musk.

In Congress next week, Mike Johnson may have to fight to keep his role as House Speaker. Another ugly brawl could damage him more even if he keeps his seat and further expose the GOP’s weakness as a governing party. If they can’t govern with the White House and both Houses of Congress, they’re essentially an impotent party.

As for Democrats, they need to figure out to talk to Americans who work for wages again. They no longer have a large, enthusiastic base. Voters support them more as the lesser of evils because Democrats have failed to articulate a clear vision of what they stand for and have failed to communicate what they’ve accomplished.”

Trump’s second term was worse than I imagined. The speed with which he and his arsonists acted shocked Democrats and Republicans alike. The grifters moved in quickly, selling pardons and using foreign policy for business deals, enriching those around the president with little regard for the welfare of the country. Trump’s random and unorthodox use of tariffs rattled the world economy. The isolationists alienated all of our western allies, strengthening Russia and leaving Ukraine more vulnerable.

Elon Musk’s brief tenure as Secretary of Slash and Burn broke much of the federal government. The abrupt end of USAID costs the lives of thousands of children. The dismantling of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention brought back childhood diseases that were almost extinct. DOGE eliminated oversight that prevents fraud and protects Americans while keeping Musk’s government contracts intact. They are plundering the government.

Trump is building paramilitary units under the guise of immigration enforcement. He’s hired a group of thugs to snatch people off the street, out of their homes, and from their jobs to throw them in gulags. The goal is to create fear in communities and scare people into self-deportation. Civil and human rights be damned. Even if you believe we need to deport a lot of people, the methods used by these paramilitary units run contrary to the core values of our nation.

Finally, Trump is attempting to rebrand as much of the country with his name as possible. He’s renamed the Kennedy Center for himself. He’s also taken over municipal golf courses in Washington that he will likely name after himself. As we move toward the July 4th celebration, expect him to make more monuments to himself. He clearly sees the country as his.

That’s my wrap of 2025 at the national level. Now, for my predictions. In 2026, we’ll see a continuation of the worst of Trump’s abuses. He’ll escalate his deportation program and begin trying to strip citizenship away from naturalized citizens. The paramilitary squads will grow and become even more aggressive in their tactics, disappearing citizens and assaulting bystanders and witnesses.

The grift will continue. He’ll sell pardons to fraudsters and corrupt politicians, as long as they’re Republicans or politically pliable. The Trump Organization will see windfall profits as countries cut deals with the administration in exchange for enriching the Trump family and their associates. Republicans in Congress will continue to look the other way.

The economy will remain resilient, but prices will continue to increase, especially energy costs. “Affordability” will remain a catch phrase as people struggle to cover their costs even though unemployment stays relatively low.

Health care costs are going to increasingly dominate the political conversation. Premiums for people reliant on Obamacare are going to cause a lot of economic angst. My premium rose by almost 60%, costing me several thousands of dollars a year. Combined with looming cuts to Medicaid, health care costs are about to become a huge liability for Republicans.

Going into 2026, Republicans will suffer from the same economic problems that plagued Biden and the Democrats. The economy and jobs market will be relatively strong, but prices will leave voters feeling pinched. With control of the White House and Congress, the GOP will be at the receiving end of voters’ wrath this time.

Here in North Carolina, Republicans will suffer from the unpopularity of the Trump administration. Rising costs will leave voters in a foul mood. The legislature’s failure to pass a budget will leave rural communities that are disproportionately dependent on government jobs and money demoralized. They will feel the impact of teachers and state employees whose pay has stagnated as prices rise. Trickle down theory will take on a different meaning as the stores and businesses where they shop see their revenues drop, too.

With a dismal political environment for Republicans, 2026 will prove to be a good year for Democrats in North Carolina. Republican turnout will be down compared to 2022, the last midterm election. Anger at the Trump administration and dissatisfaction with the legislature will drive Democratic turnout higher than normal. Independent voters will break for Democrats.

The Republican primary for US Senate will expose the fighting playing out in the GOP right now. Much of MAGA will line up behind either Michele Morrow or one of the other Republicans running. Trump will come into the state to stump for Michael Whatley. He will prevail but the race will tighter than he wanted.

In the general election, Roy Cooper will maintain a significant lead throughout the year. The race will tighten in the fall but Whatley will never be able to catch the popular former governor. Whatley will be saddled with Trump’s unpopularity and the generally poor political environment. Cooper will win by six.

Senate President Pro-tem Phil Berger is going to lose his primary to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page. His loss will be a lesson about not knowing when to go. After his loss, Berger will resign his seat since trying to lead the Senate as a lame-duck would prove difficult with the jockeying among those who would succeed him. Berger and Thom Tillis, the two men who oversaw the 2010 GOP revolution in North Carolina, will exit the political stage at the same time.

In the legislature in general, Democrats will win enough seats in both chambers to sustain Governor Josh Stein’s veto, but will come up short of controlling either the state house or senate. It will give them more power to influence legislation than they have had in years. Stein will be more powerful heading into the second half of his term.

In the Supreme Court race, Justice Anita Earls will hold her seat, drafting off Cooper’s coattails and a favorable political environment for Democrats. The three Democrats running for Court of Appeals will also win.

Representative Don Davis will surprise people and win his seat despite the GOP gerrymandering. The political environment and Davis’ political savvy will pull him through.

In NC-11, Jamie Ager will give Chuck Edwards a fight. He’ll need a few breaks and a really good political environment to win, but Trump’s failures in western NC could be enough to get him over the top, especially if he can tie the lack of FEMA funds to Edwards’ lack of clout.

Republicans will face a tough election cycle in 2026. Donald Trump will remain unpopular. The GOP Congress will continue to be inept and ineffective. Prices on essential goods and services will continue to be high. GOP infighting will plague the party throughout the year, hampering turnout efforts and energy. Republicans will have little to motivate them to vote.

Democrats, for their part, need to beware of infighting. They need to avoid primaries that nominate candidates who do not fit districts or states. They should be reminded that Tea Party candidates in moderate states kept Republicans from controlling the US Senate until 2014 despite the wave in 2010.

This election is a referendum on the party in power. While Democrats should use the cycle to redefine themselves as more pragmatic, voters are thinking more about what the people in power have either offered them or done to them. It’s a largely reactionary election and Democrats should avoid making it about big ideas that they lack the power to carry out.

Let’s hope 2026 beats 2025.