I also think Jamie Ager has an excellent chance to win, as does Don Davis. I met Jamie in Raleigh and he is well known in Western NC. He's a farmer and his grandfather was in the Legislature and Congress. Don Davis is well lined by his constituents.
I also think others have a chance to win their congressional seats, but it'll be a lot harder. Paul Barringer 8n District 13 might have a chance. He's also a farmer and his district is partly 9n Wake County.
I'm also hopeful that Wake County will go completely Blue with Winn Decker winning in Southern Wake and Yvonne Hopkins winning in Northern Wake.
It's imperative that Justice Anita Earls wins, as well as Court of Appeals Judges Roby Hampson and John Arrow wood, along with whomever wins the Democratic Primary for the open seat. In 2028, there will be 3 Republican held Supreme Court seats on the ballot and 5 Republican held Court of Appeals seats on the ballot. That's how we take back the courts.
I hope 2028, should this year be REALLY good, will be a "turn the page" moment on Trump and the Republican Party akin to 2008.
NC GOP is going to be spending even more heavily in 2028 (and they will spend a LOT this year) to keep their court majorities, incumbent U.S. Senator Tedd Budd and the electoral votes for President.
The wild card is whether Trump dies this year and whether a President Vance discourages GOP voters from turning out in 2028.
You may be overvaluing Chuck Edwards’ strength, not just in the November general election but in winning the GOP nomination. Adam Smith is an impressive challenger with qualities Republicans like (ex-Green Beret and local hurricane-recovery hero) charisma and christian nationalism. At best, Edwards will need to spend heavily from a surprisingly spare campaign fund to get the nomination, then will likely face a comparatively flush Jamie Ager. All while Trump’s popularity is fading and the GOP ticket is led by the even less popular Whatley.
I agree except about the economy. I canceled my health insurance yesterday because the premiums more than tripled for a worse plan. A friend of mine told me yesterday that he lost his job already because of Medicaid cuts that are just beginning. So healthcare costs and the increasing cost of everything coupled with the wild uncertainty caused by these idiotic tariffs will have an increasingly negative effect on the economy. A lot will depend on when this AI bubble bursts. The techbroliarchs are trying to shove AI down our collective throats and many of us don’t want it or at least that much of it. People are also starting to fight back against the increase of energy costs associated with the construction of data centers to power AI that consumers are paying a lot of the bill for. These forces are unsustainable for a good economy and job market.
I truly hope 2026 is even a little bit better than 2025.
I also think Jamie Ager has an excellent chance to win, as does Don Davis. I met Jamie in Raleigh and he is well known in Western NC. He's a farmer and his grandfather was in the Legislature and Congress. Don Davis is well lined by his constituents.
I also think others have a chance to win their congressional seats, but it'll be a lot harder. Paul Barringer 8n District 13 might have a chance. He's also a farmer and his district is partly 9n Wake County.
I'm also hopeful that Wake County will go completely Blue with Winn Decker winning in Southern Wake and Yvonne Hopkins winning in Northern Wake.
It's imperative that Justice Anita Earls wins, as well as Court of Appeals Judges Roby Hampson and John Arrow wood, along with whomever wins the Democratic Primary for the open seat. In 2028, there will be 3 Republican held Supreme Court seats on the ballot and 5 Republican held Court of Appeals seats on the ballot. That's how we take back the courts.
I hope 2028, should this year be REALLY good, will be a "turn the page" moment on Trump and the Republican Party akin to 2008.
NC GOP is going to be spending even more heavily in 2028 (and they will spend a LOT this year) to keep their court majorities, incumbent U.S. Senator Tedd Budd and the electoral votes for President.
The wild card is whether Trump dies this year and whether a President Vance discourages GOP voters from turning out in 2028.
You may be overvaluing Chuck Edwards’ strength, not just in the November general election but in winning the GOP nomination. Adam Smith is an impressive challenger with qualities Republicans like (ex-Green Beret and local hurricane-recovery hero) charisma and christian nationalism. At best, Edwards will need to spend heavily from a surprisingly spare campaign fund to get the nomination, then will likely face a comparatively flush Jamie Ager. All while Trump’s popularity is fading and the GOP ticket is led by the even less popular Whatley.
I agree except about the economy. I canceled my health insurance yesterday because the premiums more than tripled for a worse plan. A friend of mine told me yesterday that he lost his job already because of Medicaid cuts that are just beginning. So healthcare costs and the increasing cost of everything coupled with the wild uncertainty caused by these idiotic tariffs will have an increasingly negative effect on the economy. A lot will depend on when this AI bubble bursts. The techbroliarchs are trying to shove AI down our collective throats and many of us don’t want it or at least that much of it. People are also starting to fight back against the increase of energy costs associated with the construction of data centers to power AI that consumers are paying a lot of the bill for. These forces are unsustainable for a good economy and job market.
I truly hope 2026 is even a little bit better than 2025.
Great analysis. The uncertainty that wasn’t mentioned is the potential for voter suppression.
Yes Thomas, thanks. The most interesting possibility you posed is for NC-11.
Thanks for writing this, Thomas.