Should he stay or should he go?

Survey results came back as the political world seems to be shifting.

Thanks to everyone who took a moment to fill out our survey on Biden’s candidacy. This survey was not a poll. It was a reflection of the people who read this newsletter. They are mostly from North Carolina, heavily Democratic, predominantly college educated, and skew older than the electorate as a whole.

A solid majority of the readers believes that Biden should step down as the Democratic nominee. Fifty-seven percent think he should be replaced on the ticket while 30% think he should stay. Thirteen percent are undecided.

There were demographic differences. Among readers under 40 years old, 78% believe Biden should go while only 19% think he should stay. Among readers 41-64 years old, 63% think Biden should step down while 28% think he should stay. Of the oldest group, those 65 years old and up, 54% think he should leave while 31% want him to stay and 15% are undecided.

There was also a gender divide. Among women, 52% want Biden to step down and 35% want him to say. Among men, 61% want him to go and 27% want him to stay.

Of those that believe he should step down, 56% believe he should be replaced by Kamala Harris, 13% prefer Gretchen Whitmer, and 9% want Roy Cooper. Nobody else garnered significant support.

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I did the survey to satisfy my own curiosity. Online activists have been accusing a small group of powerful insiders of trying to upend the Biden campaign. My sense from multiple conversations was a much broader desire to see him replaced on the ballot. Almost all of the rank-and-file Democrats with whom I’ve spoken think he should step down. I also haven’t found much support for his continued candidacy among my consultant friends working on competitive campaigns or those working in Washington. I now know where this community stands.

Nationally, I think the movement to replace Biden is moving fast. The AP released a poll showing that 70% of Americans, including 65% of Democrats think Biden should drop out of the race. The Wall Street Journal reports that internal polling circulating among Democrats in Washington shows Biden losing every swing state and “behind or even in New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia and Maine.” The report also says that a majority of swing voters believes the Biden campaign and other elected Democrats have been dishonest about the president’s cognitive abilities.

Yesterday, Montana Senator Jon Tester called for Biden to step down, the first Senator from a competitive race to do so. Other candidates will probably follow. No Senate or Congressional candidate in a contested race has called for Biden to stay in the race but several have asked him to drop out. They are driven by their internal polling and Biden’s candidacy is increasingly seen as a threat to Democratic control of the House and Senate.

Supporters of the president want the race to be a referendum on Biden’s record. They cite jobs reports, record stock market closings, falling inflation and gas prices, low unemployment, rising wages, and a solid GDP. However, if he stays on the ticket, the race will most likely become a referendum on his age and abilities, not his record.

Voters have been wary of Biden’s cognitive abilities and physical health since before he announced his bid for re-election. For more than a year, the campaign has not been able to remove voters’ doubts. His debate performance did not create questions; it verified what many people already suspected. The campaign’s attempts to put those fears to rest have failed, with Biden struggling through interviews and looking frail. If he stays in the race, the spotlight will remain on him and his health, not Trump or his record.

Switching candidates at this point in an election is surely fraught with uncertainty and whoever replaces Biden might lose, but Biden’s campaign is grappling with a problem that they probably cannot fix. He’s not going to get any younger or likely perform any better. The media is not going to refocus their attention on anything else. They clearly believe the story is his age and cognitive decline. Blaming them won’t change anything and Democrats don’t have a communications ecosystem to counter their narrative. Thirty-second ads certainly can’t do it.

The Republicans have a two-pronged argument: 1) that Biden is too old and frail for the job, 2) that the administration covered up his infirmities. The first argument goes to competency and the second to trust. They will go into the fall hammering two points that many voters already believe.

While the future is really uncertain, a new candidate could shift the dynamic of the race. Voters are dissatisfied with their choices for president. While Biden’s numbers are falling, Trump’s are not rising significantly. His ceiling is fairly low and a lot of voters would support him only reluctantly. They might appreciate a choice without the baggage of Trump or the liabilities of Biden.

I suspect we’ll know more by the end of the weekend.