The most consequential week

Whether Biden stays or goes, the race will be transformed.

I think in the next few days, maybe weeks, Joe Biden is going to drop out of the race for the presidency. The chorus of people who think he should leave is growing and insiders now admit that he’s been struggling for a while. Even people like Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn who initially came to his defense now seem open to a change. Donors are threatening to withhold money unless there’s a change at the top of the ticket. Too many influential Democrats who could save Biden have been silent.

Republicans have been remarkably quiet, too. With the exception of a classless post on Truth Social yesterday, Trump has said very little. We’ve heard no crowing from the likes of Lindsay Graham or Ted Cruz or Gym Jordan. They know that facing Biden is their best shot at winning the White House. Any other Democrat brings new energy into the race without the baggage that has weighed down the president.

Biden is doing an interview with George Stephanopoulos today to try to save his candidacy. I don’t think it will work. His demeanor during the debate has made the scrutiny too great and his room for error too small. The media and public will no longer look past minor gaffes. His attempt yesterday to build confidence by going on two radio shows just drew attention to his misstatements and rambling answers instead of restoring confidence. Before the debate, those shows would likely have been ignored.

The “what next” phase of replacing Biden has already begun. Kamala Harris is the odds-on favorite to lead the ticket. Logistically, she’s the easiest choice since she is already on the ballot and has access to the campaign’s resources. Democrats seem to be warming to her candidacy, even if some are wary about her leading the ticket.

The party risks falling into infighting and backbiting over the choice of a successor. Last night, Joan Walsh of the Nation tweeted, “Let me tell you: there are still some influential white men plotting about how to kick the VP to the curb. Not as many as last week or last month, but still too many.” That’s not helpful. Boiling everything down to race and gender is why so many voters are skeptical of the Democratic Party.

People have legitimate questions about Harris’ ability to lead the ticket. Her presidential campaign was a disaster. She had the best kick-off of any presidential candidate in recent history and then blew it within 48 hours because she couldn’t answer basic questions from reporters. He campaign devolved into petty infighting and backbiting and never even made it to the Iowa caucuses. She also had a rocky transition to the vice-presidency that was racked by turnover and reports of grumbling during her first years in office.

That said, Harris has also shown real strengths. Her stellar debate performance in the summer of 2019 temporarily revived her campaign, impressing pundits and donors. Her questioning of Bill Barr and Brett Kavanaugh in the Senate offered a masterclass in holding public officials accountable. At a time when crime is a major concerns for a lot of voters, she spent years as a prosecutor before becoming attorney general of the largest state in the nation.

As a Black woman, she could relieve some of the problems Democrats have had with African American voters. She is also a better messenger for protecting reproductive rights than an 81-year-old Catholic man. A debate between her and Trump would give Americans a stark choice, both visually and substantively.

Finally, I don’t think Harris is well-defined in the minds of most Americans. That offers risks and opportunities. Despite polling showing her unpopular, I doubt most people have strong views about her one way or the other. The right is going to hate her for who she is. They will always push back against a woman, especially one of color. But most people would probably give her a chance to convince them, given their despair about the two men on the ticket right now. Her job would be to persuade people she’s a better choice than Donald Trump, a seemingly low bar.

The ascension of Harris to lead the ticket would cause the least disruption in the campaign. Democrats would quickly get in line with a minimal period of uncertainty. However, if the party ends up in some sort of “mini primary,” as Jim Clyburn suggested, or an open convention, as others want, that doesn’t indicate racism and sexism in the ranks. Making those accusations is far more divisive and damaging than letting the scenario play out. The left needs to let their grievance politics go. Almost every Democrat I know believes a diverse ticket makes the country and party stronger. They just differ in who they support for the lead job.

The next few weeks will be among the most consequential periods in American politics. A new ticket will reshape the political dynamic of the 2024 election, though how it changes the race is unknown. If Biden remains the standard bearer, down-ballot races will quickly shift their dynamic to run separate from the president and Democrats will start figuring out how to combat the dramatic and scary actions promised by a second Trump presidency.