Yeah, that poll is probably about right

North Carolina is swing state for a reason.

Recently, a poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed a much tighter race for US Senate in North Carolina than other recent surveys. According to the poll, Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by only four points. Other polls had shown Cooper with double-digit leads. The news rippled through the press with pundits saying the race is tightening.

In North Carolina, the polls almost always tighten for Democrats. Governor Josh Stein is the only statewide Democratic candidate to receive more than 52% of the vote in the last 15 to 20 years and he had a historically flawed opponent. If Cooper wins, he will probably garner around 51% or 52% of the vote and win by two to four points, about where the PPP poll lands.

North Carolina is a tough state for both sides. Republicans don’t get much more than Democrats when they win. Trump won by 3.3% in 2024 but only 1.3% in 2020. In 2022, Ted Budd won by only 3.2% despite a strong GOP year. He got less than 51% of the vote.

I agree with most of the prognosticators who rate the Senate race as leaning Democratic. Cooper is a demonstrably better candidate than Whatley. The former governor has outraised the former Republican National Committee chair by almost three to one. Whatley has faced criticism from his own party while Cooper seems to be energizing his base.

The political environment favors Cooper, too. The party in the White House generally loses seats in midterm elections. Right now, the country is angry at the GOP for rising prices and wars of choice.

Republicans will try to make the race about crime. It won’t work. Despite their greatest efforts, campaigns can’t drive the political narrative. Voters do that. Candidates either catch the wind driven by voters’ concerns or they fight against it. Whatley’s campaign will try to force the conversation to tack right, but it’s not likely to work.

Cooper, for his part, is tapping into voters’ angst. As New York Times columnist Frank Bruni points out, Cooper’s campaign slogan is “Make Stuff Cost Less.” It’s not flashy, but neither are the people who will determine the election. They aren’t activists looking for a hero. They’re just people trying to make ends meet and facing rising prices and higher bills.

Short of some sort of galvanizing event, I think Cooper wins North Carolina. I don’t think he wins big because nobody in North Carolina does. The four-point lead PPP found is probably how the race pans out. We’re a swing state for a reason. It takes a self-described Black Nazi with a porn habit to lose by double digits and even then he gets 40% of the vote.