Back in 1964, the GOP presidential contest had far fewer candidates than it does today but the tenor and debate mirrors much of what is happening the in the Republican primary now. Back then, New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller was the leading establishment politician. The upstart, Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, was galvanizing conservatives.
In a rancorous GOP convention, conservative activists shouted down Rockefeller when he tried to give a speech on the floor. They went on to nominate Goldwater easily. In his acceptance speech the conservative firebrand declared “I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.” That sentiment, which fired up the conservative base but alienated most other Americans, led to the landslide election that gave Lyndon Johnson his first full term.
The Republican Party today faces a similar dilemma. The firebrands this time are Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz. The moderates, mainly governors like Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie, can’t seem to find their footing with an angry conservative base. With voting in primaries just a few weeks away, the GOP establishment is beginning to panic.
Nominating Trump or Cruz might have angry conservatives dancing in the streets, but it would likely scare the bejeezus out of most Americans. The Democrats will, in all likelihood, nominate Hillary Clinton. At a time of distrust in the establishment, Clinton might not be the strongest candidate, but she will look like a stateswoman compared to the mean-spirited rhetoric of Trump and Cruz. If Republicans nominate either of them, they will probably suffer a landslide loss like we haven’t seen in decades.
The GOP’s strongest general election candidate is probably Kasich but he can’t seem to get the traction to win the nomination. Marco Rubio is the fall back for the establishment but he’s very green and if foreign policy plays a big role in the election, he would be at a serious disadvantage. Besides, his profile looks a lot like Barack Obamas’s—a first term senator who came from the state legislature and gives a great speech—and the country might not be ready for that person again.
If the Republicans continue down the path they’re on now, Democrats in states like North Carolina better fill every available position. A Trump or Cruz nomination could swing the country in their favor like the 2010 and 2014 elections swung it to the GOP. In 1964, Goldwater won his home state and the Deep South and that was it. Donald Trump couldn’t win New York.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Rockefeller’s loss to Goldwater was the result of Rockefeller committing political suicide via marital indiscretions. Rockefeller deliberately intensified the ideological battles in order to distract from the personal scandals that were killing him in the polls:
“The scandalous news of Rockefeller’s wedding in May of 1963 spread quickly. Nelson, who had divorced his first wife Tod eighteen months earlier, was finally tying the knot with the woman he had been having a relationship with for over five years, Margaretta “Happy” Murphy. Public reaction to Nelson’s divorce had been muted, but the headlines announcing his remarriage prompted the outrage and incredulity of many. Adding to the public’s disapproval was the fact that in her recently settled divorce, Happy had surrendered custody of her four children.
Yet the political impact of Nelson’s second marriage was even more irreversible than its moral implications. The polls, which had given him a comfortable lead over other potential candidates just weeks before, saw his popularity take a dive. Pundits called it an act of political self-destruction, noting that his presidential hopes seemed now more unattainable than ever. But the ever-confident Rockefeller forged ahead. Determined to regain the upper hand, he set out to turn the public’s attention to the ideological battles heating up within the Republican Party. In July 1963 he publicly declared war against what he called the “extremist groups” that threatened to subvert the GOP from the right, taking aim at his main opponent for the nomination, conservative Barry Goldwater. ”
Probably the best recent analogy we have to what happened to Rockefeller would be John Edwards.
As to what is happening in the GOP in 2016, it’s hard to find a precedent where the people are actively embracing a divisive bombast (non-military) outsider over more rational, experienced alternatives, but I think the Democratic primary of 1896 is the closest thing we have. That was William Jennings Bryan and the “Cross of Gold” speech. However, Bryan was not wealthy like Trump. Trump seems a lot more like FDR or TR.
I have to ask, Christopher: in what way or ways, exactly, does Trump seem “a lot more like FDR or TR”? That is one of the most bizarre statements I’ve ever read in the comments on this site, and there have been many.
Your relentless pandering and endorsement of a democratic candidate, as rotten and dishonest as any of the current republican zealots, is disturbing in the extreme. In case you haven’t noticed, which goes without saying, Billary is a republican in all but name only; just last week she spoke before the Council on Foreign Relations – something that should raise red flags among democrats, where she promised to abide by the neo-con roadmap of Dick Cheney and, like Obama before her, pursue war at every opportunity, all while maintaining a plethora of neo-cons as her department heads – just has Obama has done. Hillary is a world class liar, her objective is the presidency and she’ll say and do anything to achieve this objective. Her address to the CFR needs to be made public record so that her supporters realize she is a warmonger, war criminal and Wall Street insider and that is what you’ll get from her prospective future presidency… Enjoy!
We get it. You dont like Hillary. Im not her biggest fan either, but I don’t go around accusing her of letting the Bilderburgers or the Elders of Zion run her campaign. Could you please stop posting this same rant over and over? Its not convincing anyone. In the meantime there’s a big red stain on Jupiter that could use some cleaning, and I feel that as cosmic janitor could use your attention.
Bravo, and well said, Matt!
Interesting to read the linked Post article “The GOP Estabilshment is beginning to panic”. Republican strategists saying they’re not just worried about nominating an un-electable candidate, but someone who is “frankly, not fit to be president”.
Thomas, I have some trouble following your final sentences and the train of thought in them.
“Marco Rubio is the fall back for the establishment but he’s very green and if foreign policy plays a big role in the election, he would be at a serious disadvantage. Besides, his profile looks a lot like Barack Obamas’s (IS THIS A BAD THING? DIDN’T OBAMA WIN THE PRESIDENCY?)—a first term senator who came from the state legislature and gives a great speech (HUH? WHAT GREAT SPEECH DID RUBIO GIVE?)—and the country might be ready for that person again (WHAT DO THESE WORDS MEAN? “IF THE COUNTRY MAY BE READ FOR THAT PERSON AGAIN,” HOW IS THAT A BAD THING FOR RUBIO?).
If the Republicans continue down the path they’re on now, Democrats in states like North Carolina better fill every available position (HUH? FILL WHAT AVAILABLE POSITIONS?). A Trump or Cruz nomination could swing the country in their favor (WHOSE FAVOR? TRUMPS AND CRUZ’S, OR THE DEMS?) like the 2010 and 2014 elections swung it to the GOP (HUH? THERE WERE NO PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS IN 2010 AND 2014 SWINGING ANYTHING IN ANY PARTY’S FAVOR) .
Care to clarify?
Well I’m not gonna speak for Thomas on the first couple but I can field the answers for the questions in your last paragraph. He means that if the Republicans nominate Trump or Rubio it could scare voters to the point that it reverberates down the ticket resulting in a so called ‘wave election’ (like 2010 or 2014) where voters flock en masse to the other party. To take advantage of this Democrats need to have candidates in place from dog catcher all the way up to Senate to take advantage of said ‘wave’. This would be a stark contrast to 2012 when the Dem party in the state threw up its collective hands over redistricting and left 30+% of NCGA seats uncontested. Does that help?
Yes, it helps, as it confirms my suspicions of what he meant. Was just struggling with the sentence structuring and word positioning, which I thought did not reflect Thomas’ usual strong hand…….
I was at that 1964 GOP national convention, as a Governor George Romney staff member, and was the liaison between the Romney and Rockefeller camps on the platform and strategy. I will never forget the hatred rising from the convention floor when Governor Rockefeller spoke. When that kind of anger reveals itself in a political party or any individual, it corrupts everything else. I hope the Republican–or Democratic–parties do not ever have to go through that kind of meanness again.