For Richard Burr, there’s finally a potential challenger on the horizon. His name is Duane Hall, a two-term member of the State House who represents parts of Cary and Raleigh. Hall plans to form an exploratory committee but is stressing that he’s not ready to run for anything just yet.
Hall called Burr “a weak incumbent” and criticized his handling of veterans’ issues. He says that even if he’s not the eventual nominee, Burr will get a strong challenge. Right now though, Hall plans to take a serious look at entering himself.
The news is a bit of a surprise. The Rep. Hall who has been mentioned as a potential challenger is Rep. Larry Hall of Durham, the House Minority Leader. There were rumors that Hall was considering running for the open Senate District 16 seat now occupied by Josh Stein, who is running for Attorney General. It looks like Hall has his sights set on bigger and better things.
So, what would Rep. Hall’s chances be, if indeed he became the nominee? Frankly: not that great. As a two-term House member, Hall would probably not be a fundraising dynamo. He would probably be a lesser priority for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee – but someone they’d keep an eye on, just in case Burr appears more vulnerable than once thought and Democrats are looking strong nationally.
But, you can’t beat something with nothing. And it’s clear that Hall with start off with a strong base of support. In a presidential year, the Democratic floor is probably something like 45% or 46%. It would be tough to knock off Burr, but if things go just right, Hall or any Democrat would be well-positioned to take advantage.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
He could win. A pathway to victory runs squarely through the military veteran community if he works that crowd hard. Burr has neglected veterans on several important issues and this guy seems to understand that.
I thought that issue might work for Brad Miller, who served in Afghanistan. But Miller has opted out, and pretty well dropped off the radar entirely since he left the House. The military/veteran community certainly has potential for any Burr challenger, but it’s not the only one. He should be polling miserably among teachers, women, minorities and pretty much anybody else who works for a living. He’s also never going to get students, Millennials or the environmental vote. Why the NCDP doesn’t see him as vulnerable to almost ANY challenger is beyond me. The problem that all of the current contenders have in common is name recognition in a statewide race. The state party committee could do something about that — if they would.
Bor-ing. This guy’s the next Elaine Marshall.
“The main thing that every political campaign in the United States demonstrates is that the politicians of all parties, despite their superficial enmities, are really members of one great brotherhood. Their principal, and indeed their sole, object is to collar public office, with all the privileges and profits that go therewith. They achieve this collaring by buying votes with other people’s money. No professional politician is ever actually in favor of public economy. It is his implacable enemy, and he knows it. All professional politicians are dedicated wholeheartedly to waste and corruption. They are the enemies of every decent man.” —H. L. Mencken