A poll by the conservative Civitas Institute shows trouble ahead for Republicans. The poll only tested voters who are registered unaffiliated, but within that group are the bulk of the swing voters in North Carolina. It’s just one poll but the responses are eye-opening.
First, Tillis trails Hagan by 12 points, 39% to 27%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh taking eight percent. Without Haugh, Hagan leads 41% to 33%, indicating that Haugh is taking a few votes from Tillis at this point.
The bigger problem for Tillis, though, is his favorability rating. He’s upside down by 26 points, 17% favorable to 43% unfavorable. Hagan, in contrast, is at 43% to 43%. The Speaker is still unknown by 16% and another 24% say they have no opinion of him. That’s not a great place to be when the negatives are coming at him so hard, especially given the issues that are motivating these voters.
The poll was done at the the end of August but education still had their attention and tops their priority list for North Carolina. Fifty-three percent say that the state has gotten it wrong on education or teacher pay and 32% say improving education should be the legislature’s top priority. Jobs and the economy is slipping back on their priority list after being at the top since the recession hit.
What’s really interesting, though, are the broader measures among these key voters. Obama’s approval rating is net positive by one point, 48% to 47% while McCrory’s is net negative by five, 36% to 41%. In 2010, Obama’s rating among this group was upside down at 44% to 50%. They also approve of Obamacare by a 48% to 47% margin. In 2010, a majority of these voters opposed the measure by eleven points, 40% – 51%.
They are as likely to be motivated by state issues as national issues, 29% – 28%. More would vote for Democrats than Republicans for legislature by a 33% to 28% margin and 45% say they tend to vote Democratic, only 31% say Republican.
Now, these are registered voters, not likely voters so a good portion will not show up at the polls. That said, the days when unaffiliated voters were assumed to be Republicans is over. They clearly are mad at the GOP legislature and there are plenty of targets among this group for Democrats..
This poll dovetails nicely with one released by the DSCC earlier this week. That poll has Hagan leading 48% to 45%. She breaks even with independents, 40-39, and her favorability is split evenly, 39-40. Like the poll of unaffiliated voters, Tillis is underwater, 29% – 36%.
Both of these polls are good news for Hagan. The poll of unaffiliated voters suggests independent voters are angrier with the legislature than with Obama which means we’ll continue to see the Democrats try to wrap Tillis around the legislature. However, the GOP attempt to tie Hagan to Obama might not matter unless his approval among those swing voters drops pretty dramatically.
In August poll, the unaffiliated voters are clearly more focused on state issues than federal ones. That’s good for Hagan but their attention could shift. As the legislative session gets further in the rear view mirror, they may begin to watch national issues more, but judging from the Civitas poll, even that might not hurt Hagan as much as it would have a year or so ago.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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