The campaign of Richard Burr announced that the senator brought in $1.7 million for the second quarter and has $3.8 million on hand. It’s yet another reminder that the more time Democrats stall, the better Burr’s reelection prospects become.
At least publicly, Democrats are optimistic about their chances of beating Burr next November. In a memo released by the DSCC, they say that North Carolina is a pure purple state and Burr is an untested incumbent. To support their first claim, they note that more North Carolinians supported Democrats for Congress despite the delegation skewing Republican.
In addition, the state supported Barack Obama and Kay Hagan in 2008 and it looks like the state will be competitive at the presidential level once again. McCrory and the General Assembly are unpopular, Burr’s approvals are not stellar, and the senator won in years favorable to the GOP – 2004 and 2010. And last year, despite a GOP wave nationally, Thom Tillis won by the smallest margin of any Republican in the country. The calculation? A pure purple state + a presidential environment = trouble for Burr.
The memo contains a mixture of truth and spin. The point easiest refuted is the claim that the state is pure purple. In fact, it leans to the right, even with presidential turnout. One can bring up 2008, but that was a long time ago and a near-perfect environment for Democrats. North Carolina is only purple in a Democratic year. If the race is close nationally, North Carolina will be the first swing state taken off the table. Polls, in fact, show Hillary Clinton struggling here. Her numbers look like Kay Hagan’s – in the mid-40s with little room for growth. Scott Walker and Marco Rubio are ahead of her. (To be fair, perceived frontrunner Jeb Bush is not.)
Next, there’s the matter of Democrats winning more votes for Congress than Republicans did in 2012. That’s mostly because there were several conservative Democrats running at the congressional level and skewing the totals in favor of Democrats. Whoever Democrats nominate probably won’t be someone with conservative appeal, so the point is pretty much irrelevant as far as the Senate race goes.
Finally, Richard Burr will be in a stronger position than Thom Tillis. He will have the advantages of incumbency and will lack the disadvantage of presiding over a chamber of the General Assembly. It will be impossible for Democrats to make the Senate race a referendum on the state legislature.
Perhaps the biggest reason to think that Burr is favored? Kay Hagan’s unwillingness to run against him. Sure, she was just through a tough campaign, but Democrats touted her as their strongest candidate – some said, the only candidate who could possibly give him a fight. In the end, Hagan spent quite some time deciding whether or not to run, and she didn’t pull the trigger. The fact that Burr’s strongest opponent decided not to run against him reveals that he’ll be hard to beat.
Hard to beat – but not impossible, either. Democrats will need two things: for Hillary Clinton to win the state, and to recruit a strong candidate. Hillary’s chances here are about 50/50, at best. And their strongest candidate just decided not to run a few weeks ago. There’s still time but Burr started out this race as the favorite and his position has only strengthened since then.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Brains and Balls in the same body of a Democrat is hard to find. Every Republican in the State of NC signed the Norquist Nation Pledge. He hasn’t got to say a thing. He did too. Some fault the Dems perfect pick, and the one rumored to have walked off stage looking for the job, for abandoning the jewel of the State, the University system to Pope and the rest of the goon squad. Appears he has abandoned the field as well. Maybe anyone in their prime working years, able to withstand the rigors of a campaign simply got up and left for better lives in places unknown but suspected as better for if not the life of the mind, money in their pocket. And lest my first line be seen as a diss on women, it is obvious to anyone that Elizabeth Warren has courage and integrity, along with Bernie Sanders, though neither has grabbed hold of the third rail that keeps refugees headed North out of the South of the border. 10 thousand to 14 thousand a year are killed as a consequence of the War on Drugs, a war same as that Chicago saw give the whole town to Al Capone. J. Edgar Hoover would be proud, as well as his silent partner, silent as Burr ever, Meyer Lansky.
Clearly if it turns out to be a contest between Trump and Senator Clinton, ending with the apologists for about everything of substance they have ever done, all that drama and the wonderful boredom of US politics may very well end. When Thomas B. Reed let the Speaker of the House Chair go in 1899 as an act of integrity seeing that the world promise that the US had been was gone in obeisance to Mahan as now we have Mearsheimer at a time when battleships mean little and nuclear weapons a great deal more than floating steel and biplanes could ever be, either the dream is given a forced rebirth in a land of laws, or the Dark Ages will soon look like a time of fields of flowers good wise Kings, and happy dancing.
I haven’t seen anyone comment on Burr’s stony silence on the Charleston church murders. Can the “son of a prominent minister” really remain totally silent on events which included the murder of ministers in their place of worship? Is Burr going to try to get Governor Nikki Haley to “come on up” and campaign for him? How much of Burr’s campaign money bonanza is coming from NRA types, and is THAT why he’s silent as a “church mouse”???
From my observation, “stony silence” is Burr’s habitual status. I write my US senators and congressional representatives frequently: Rep. Butterfield and Sen. Tillis always respond, but in the past four years I’ve received exactly ONE response from Sen. Burr. (I figure one of his staff slipped up by actually answering that one.) I suppose non-engagement with constituents could work to Burr’s advantage: if we don’t know what (or if) he thinks, we all could conceivably imagine he agrees with us. Or maybe he’s just too busy fundraising, I don’t know: but I feel less than positively inspired by an alleged “representative” who prefers to ignore me and my concerns.
I think this popular wisdom is wrong here….Hagan shot herself in the foot with the Affordable Care act and she’s poisoned goods and I suspect she knows that. Find another “moderate” (her self-description, not mine) and Burr isn’t looking so formidable, money or not. Roy Cooper could do it but he’s going to waste himself on an inconsequential gubernatorial race and thus, the Dems are going to implode on this one. And I agree with the National Dems on this one. It is winnable.But for want of a candidate…..
As usual we Democrats are reallllly.. appreciate your concern about who we might run against the farm implement salesman Burr, campaign monies .and of course, Hillary. Not to worry John, not to worry. I would think you have enough on your plate with the State and National GOP. But again…our thanks for the concern. cheers.