Several weeks ago, I wrote a post on the five districts in the North Carolina Senate most likely to switch parties. The 27th, held by Republican Trudy Wade, did not make the list – for good reason, as we’ll see later. But Senator Wade’s role in enacting the Greensboro City Council redistricting probably has some Democrats dreaming of ousting her next year. Are those dreams realistic?

Answer: possibly, but it will be an uphill climb. Wade’s district is comprised of some of suburban Greensboro and High Point, along with very red rural areas in Guilford County. A challenger to Wade will need to raise a lot of money and hope to win over a larger than usual number of Republicans. This is definitely a district where one of those Main Street Democrats could come in handy – in fact, it’s probably a necessity.

When assessing a legislator’s chance of being successfully challenged, it helps to look at past election results. Wade was unopposed last time around, so that’s not helpful, though it does speak to the uphill climb any challenger will face if nobody wanted to file against her last time around. In her first election to the Senate in 2012, Wade prevailed, 58-42. Romney won it 54-45. McCrory won almost 60% of the vote. The 27th also voted Republican for every Council of State race. Exact numbers are unavailable, but it looks like last year Thom Tillis won it with 54% or so.

Needless to say, a winning Democrat will have to rely on a backlash that’s pretty much specific to Trudy Wade. The district is otherwise too Republican. Any backlash would probably center on the Greensboro redistricting, but a look at the district map reveals the difficulty in that issue getting traction: only a smart part of Greensboro is in the 27th. Most of Greensboro is in the heavily black 28th district. The center-left parts of the city are divided between Wade’s district and Berger’s in the 26th. Simply put, the city of Greensboro itself has minimal influence in the 27th, so any backlash to the redistricting is going to have to extend outside of the city’s borders. Voters outside the city have to be mad, too.

My guess is that the Republicanism of Wade’s district is just a bridge too far for any Democratic challenger. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but Democrats will face a very steep climb. If Team Blue really wants to challenge a GOP legislator who helped redraw districts this session, then they might want to look at Chad Barefoot, who in the post above was named the most vulnerable incumbent legislator. But his district was going to be competitive from the get-go – and he should be favored at this point regardless. For Wade, Democrats are going to have to fight the district fundamentals. When all is said and done, they might just find it’s too much of a challenge for them to bother.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.