Just a couple of weeks ago, all of the senate prognosticators indicated an almost certain GOP takeover. Nate Silver said Republicans had a 64% chance of winning the senate. Just a few months ago, the Washington Post’s Election Lab had the GOP chances at 80%. And as recently as last week, the New York Times had it at 61%. Stu Rothenberg wrote that he believed the GOP would pick up at least seven seats, more than the six needed to flip the Senate. Charlie Cook also thought things were going down hill for Democrats.

Today, Silver has the odds at 55% chance. The New York Times and Washington Post have it even odds. And yesterday, Cook wrote a piece titled “What could go wrong for the GOP?” So what changed so fast?

Well, the campaign is coming into focus. And contrary to predictions, it might not be about Obama’s performance. In addition, a few unexpected developments popped up.

First, the GOP has yet to give people a reason to vote for them. They spent two years calling for repeal of Obamacare and predicting that it would cause economic devastation and people to lose health care. It didn’t happen. They not only lost the argument, they lost a lot of credibility. Remember the stories of the boy who cried wolf and the one about Chicken Little? Those rules apply here.

Also, foreign policy in the form of the Islamic State is driving a lot of attention. In the Elon University poll in North Carolina, voters say it’s their number one concern. While nobody seems sure of what to do, the GOP slamming Obama for being slow and indecisive brings back memories of their reckless decision to drag us into Iraq. They promised we would be in and out but we ended up there for ten years. There’s that credibility thing again. I don’t think people really want the likes John McCain and Lindsey Graham making foreign policy decisions again.

As the New York Times points out, social issues are also hurting the GOP instead of helping them. From contraception to gay marriage, Republicans are on the wrong side of the cultural divide, especially with women. Polls in both Colorado and North Carolina show huge gender gaps that are keeping Republican challengers from making headway in their campaigns.

In individual states, GOP chances are getting worse not better. Here in North Carolina, I couldn’t tell you what Thom Tillis stands for. He comes across as arrogant and condescending and using smarmy, sarcastic ads that imply his opponent doesn’t understand math hurts him on that measure. He’s got a record, but with the approval rating of the legislature he led lingering in the teens, he can’t really use it. And unfortunately, he forgot to raise money, leaving him dependent on outside groups to try to save his ass.

In Kansas, an independent candidate, Greg Orman, is going to give long-time incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts a run for his money. Roberts is the epitome of a guy who has “gone Washington.” When he says he’s going home, it’s to Fairfax, VA. It doesn’t help that, at the state level, Gov. Sam Brownback’s Republican Revolution is blowing up in his face and he’s now trailing his opponent.

In Colorado, which came on the scene relatively late as a potential GOP pick up, Democratic incumbent Mark Udall is opening up a lead on challenger Cory Gardner. Like Hagan in North Carolina, Udall is winning women voters by a substantial margin. The race was tied most of the summer so the momentum, right now, is with Udall.

Finally, the Democratic ground game has game. In North Carolina, Democrats out number Republicans in mail-in absentee ballots. Traditionally, this form of voting was dominated by the GOP. Something is obviously up and it should have Republicans scrambling. If that’s happening in other states, the Democrats may have a substantial impact on the make up of the electorate in states that matter.

The environment is volatile and next week, Republicans might be up again. The wild card seems to be the Middle East. The terrorists running the Islamic State executed a British aid worker this week and will probably kill another one next week. The situation could go to hell in a hand basket very fast. But the GOP has long term structural problems. They, not the Democrats, are out of the mainstream on a host of social issues. They doubled down on the Obamacare bet and lost. They have yet to tell the American people what they will do  if they win and Obama just doesn’t seem enough of a boogie man to scare moderates, even if they don’t like him very much.

Thomas Mills

Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >