North Carolina Democrats have a two-pronged strategy for 2016: first, elect Roy Cooper governor. Second, make him relevant by eliminating the GOP’s veto-proof majorities in at least one chamber of the legislature. This wouldn’t exactly allow Democrats to enact a laundry list of progressive policies that have been on the backburner, but it will bring them back to (what now seems like) the good ‘ol days of Bev Perdue, when they at least had the power to stop some bad legislation.
So where can Democrats make gains? In this post, we’ll focus on the State Senate and take a look at the top five “battleground districts” most likely to switch parties. Fortunately for Team Blue, all of the districts most likely to switch are held by Republicans, a function of Democrats hitting rock bottom in 2014. In other words, they have nowhere to go but up. And five is exactly the number of seats they need to make a Governor Cooper’s vetoes matter.
The five seats most likely to switch parties, from least likely (5) to most likely (1):
5. Senate District 17 – Tamara Barringer (R)
Tamara Barringer, besides being a retirement prospect (she’s rumored to be mulling statewide office – perhaps Secretary of State), occupies a swing district in southwestern Wake County. If this is an open seat, this district shoots up to the top of the list. If Barringer seeks a third term, she’ll be favored due to a moderate profile attractive to suburban voters and her status as a prolific fundraiser.
4. Senate District 12 – Ronald Rabin (R)
This is another seat that makes the top 5 due to the possibility of an open seat situation. Ronald Rabin is the oldest member of the legislature and for him to retire would not be at all surprising. If that happens, then Democrats have a ready-made candidate in Rep. Brad Salmon, who lost to Rabin by a slender margin in 2012. The district is comprised of Harnett, Lee, and a small part of Johnston counties and is more friendly to Democrats in presidential years. The minority population is growing and there’s still a strong conservative Democrat element that Salmon could tap into. Lean R for now, a toss-up if Rabin retires.
3. Senate District 19 – Wesley Meredith (R)
One day, Democrats will defeat Wesley Meredith in this Cumberland County-based district won by Obama. At least, that’s what they keep telling themselves. Through a combination of flawed opponents, robust campaign fundraising and some luck, Meredith has survived competitive contests election after election. Now he’s in his third term and becoming quite entrenched. Democrats hope the district fundamentals will eventually prove to be his undoing, but it hasn’t happened yet and may never happen. Democrats definitely need a top-tier candidate here. Former Rep. Billy Richardson was thought to be that candidate last year, but lost by 10 points. (He’s now the favorite to be Rep. Rick Glazier’s successor in his House seat.)
2. Senate District 15 – John Alexander (R)
Alexander won this northwestern Wake district in the closest Senate contest of 2014. One might imagine that this would be another very competitive contest in 2016, but the race last year was surprisingly close based on two factors: a strong opponent, and a late start (Alexander was chosen to replace Rep. Jim Fulghum, who died after receiving the nomination.) Most importantly, Alexander has a voting record that reflects the fiscally conservative, socially moderate views of his constituents. As an incumbent, he’ll be tough to beat.
And the district most likely to switch parties is …
1. Senate District 18 – Chad Barefoot (R)
Even if Democrats fail to win the governorship or roll back the GOP’s supermajorities, they’d probably be content if they could just defeat Chad Barefoot. The 18th district consists of rural and suburban eastern Wake County and all of Franklin County. Barefoot, besides being a strong social conservative, filed bills redistricting the Wake County Board of Commissioners and the Board of Education. Democrats hope that a backlash from county residents, a strong candidate, and presidential turnout will combine to make this term Barefoot’s last. But as his race last year against Sarah Crawford proved, Barefoot will be no pushover.
Now, the bad news for Democrats: at this early point, none of these five appear especially vulnerable. It will be a challenge to take back any of these seats, not to mention five of them. To do so, Democrats will need an open seat or two, strong candidates, and help from the top of the ticket.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Cooper is a liberal, pro-gay traitor. Should he ever get elected as Governor, I will leave NC.
Please go.
Great Michelle, take I40 West, I85 North or South or I95 North or South, which ever is closer.
To riff on Hemmingway, wouldn’t it be pretty to think so, that there’s much chance for the Democrats in the Senate get enough to end the supermajority? Picking up two of these would be a good showing. But, as Mike L points out, there’s really much more potential for the Democrats in the House, since turning over three or four House seats should be much easier than turning over five Senate seats (one guesses four: since Paul Tine jumped ship and gained some plum committee assignments, he’s not likely to give those up in order to sustain vetoes).
In light of the current three-way budget and bond package hate-off, a better question might be whether House Republicans might find Governor Roy Cooper a more congenial dance partner than Phil Berger (or Pat McCrory, for that matter). It would be hard to guess who would find a Tim Moore-Roy Cooper partnership more galling, Senate Republicans or House Democrats, but it would give north-of-Charlotte Republicans a chance to exact revenge for the I-77 toll fiasco, and Chamber of Commerce moderates of all stripes the leverage to restrain their colleagues who want to pack heat while attending debates.
I think there’s a much greater chance of Republicans losing their veto proof majorities in the State House than in the Senate…It just seems like the Senate districts are way too polarized…
Barefoot. Hmm. Interesting but puzzling. Regardless of the sheer number of new people moving into Wake, do we know that they’re settling in east Wake and/or Wake Forest? Just curious because if Barefoot IS vulnerable or beatable, that’s the heart of George Holding’s district, too.