A new poll from Elon takes the temperature of NC voters. While they’re not as cold toward their politicians as the temperatures outside, no one is overwhelmingly popular, and there is some anxiety about the direction in which the state is heading.
First, President Obama. No surprises here: he’s unpopular. 40% approve, 49% disapprove. Whites disapprove, 28/62, blacks approve 87/7. Only voters in the 18-30 age group approve of his performance, and his approval with independents is 33/52. It has always been the case that Obama is a polarizing figure in North Carolina, and it should remain that way until he leaves office.
Pat McCrory fares a little better, but voters are very much split on his performance as governor. 317 respondents say that they approve, 316 say they don’t, for an overall approval rating of 41/41. 23% of Democrats approve, 65% disapprove. There’s no geographic background like in PPP but I would imagine that McCrory still retains a significant amount of goodwill among moderates in the Charlotte area. They will be essential to a successful reelection effort for him in 2016.
There’s a gender gap in McCrory’s approval. Men like him, 46/38, but the governor has clearly stepped on the toes of women, as they disapprove 37/44. Perhaps they can be swayed with some delicious, freshly-baked chocolate chip cookies. If the election was held today, McCrory would probably win as usually governors need to be in negative territory to lose. But there’s still a long ways to go until Election Day 2016 and the governor will likely be judged on things that haven’t even happened yet.
Voters don’t like the General Assembly, but interestingly their numbers in this Elon poll – 34% approve, 44% disapprove – are much better than what PPP has consistently shown since the Republicans took over back in 2011. 26% of Democrats and 31% of blacks approve of what the legislature is doing. The ‘blue backlash’ failed to emerge in 2014 despite the GOP’s controversial leadership in the state; if Democrats hope to make major gains then they should hope for a blue tide at the national level, as last November is probably the best evidence yet that state issues are almost always trumped by national ones.
North Carolinians have different opinions of their two U.S. Senators. Richard Burr is at 37/31, in positive territory but with a lot of registered voters having no real opinion on him one way or the other. This jibes with what PPP has consistently found concerning Senator Burr. 26% of Democrats approve, 27% of blacks, and a plurality of independents.
It’s fortunate for Republicans that Burr, not Tillis, is up for reelection next year as Tillis is only at 30% approve, 41% disapprove. Tillis’s lower approval comes from being viewed less favorably than Burr by Democrats and independents.
A majority, 51%, say the state is on the wrong track. This is actually down from 60% back in 2011. If somehow the ‘right track’ number exceeds the ‘wrong track’ number, McCrory will be in very, very good shape for reelection, barring some sort of scandal. If we go back to 60% saying the state is going in the wrong direction, McCrory’s in trouble, as his reelection will hinge on whether or not voters feel his tenure has been marked by a discernible improvement in economic fortunes.
A majority say immigrants are a benefit to NC. 72% say all children should be required to receive vaccinations. Interestingly, support for parental choice increases with declining age. North Carolinians are split on abortion, with 42% saying access to abortion should be less strict and 40% saying laws should be made more strict.
42% support gay marriage. 47% do not. 11% don’t know where they stand, given the social pressure in favor of supporting gay marriage, I would imagine that the 11% are overwhelmingly opposed to gay marriage but just don’t want to say so. From these results I would guess that a poll on SB2 allowing magistrates to opt out of marrying gay couples for religious reasons would find at least a plurality in its favor.
Interestingly, independents are most in favor of gay marriage. 51% of Democrats support it and 39% are opposed. 18% of Republicans are in favor, 71% opposed. The overwhelming opposition of NC Republicans to gay marriage is one reason we are not seeing the General Assembly shy away from some of the more provocative social issues.
As expected, support for marriage equality decreases with increasing age. There is also a racial gap in the numbers. Whites are split 44/46 on gay marriage, blacks 34/55. Both men and women are opposed, men (40/49) more than women (45/46).
Almost a majority (49%) oppose fracking compared to 36% who support it. Support for fracking increases with increasing age. Women (31/53) are much more opposed to it than men (40/46).
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Voters don’t choose their legislators any longer. Politicians choose them by drawing the district they would like.
So the GOP had held most all sway in the state politics. legislation and policies since the elections of late 2010. But there’s still a majority of NC’ers who say the state is on the wrong track? Hmmmmm…….
Truth is, what these polls rarely give us on this “right vs. wrong track” query is the answer to the critical follow-up question, i.e., “Why?” or “How so?”.
By saying “A majority, 51%, say the state is on the wrong track. This is actually down from 60% back in 2011,” it appears, John, that you believe the GOP’s 4+ year reign has resulted in a populace more supportive of the state’s current direction. I’d contend that we really don’t know that. The numbers could mean that, as people are always reacting to more recent/immediate happenings, a majority of them don’t like the track taken by the GOP since 2011 either.