On Tuesday, Laura Fjeld, the Democratic nominee for NC-06, got a huge break when Phil Berger, Jr. lost his runoff. She drew Mark Walker, an untested baptist preacher, as her opponent. Now, she’ll probably need another break to win–but that break might already be out there.
While Berger looked like a canned candidate, Walker came off as more sincere, and he probably is. But Walker is also a staunch social conservative in a district that includes a lot of urban/suburban moderates. His positions on controversial issues like contraception and abortion could offer Fjeld an opening, and he may have already made some missteps. That’s why campaigns hire researchers.
The 6th Congressional District spans all or parts of ten counties. They range from the very rural, like Stokes and Surry, to the more urban/suburban areas of Guilford, Durham and Orange Counties. In November, Democrats and Republicans will each make up around 40% of the electorate while unaffiliated voters make up the other 20%.
It’s these unaffiliated voters that Fjeld will need. The ones in the most rural part of the district are almost certainly more conservative, but more than half live in the higher growth areas of Guilford, Durham, Orange and Alamance Counties. While they are conservative on fiscal issues, they’re probably more moderate on social issues.
Fjeld doesn’t need a Todd Akin moment exactly, but she will need evidence that Walker is out of step with the moderates in the district. At the same time, she needs to position herself as an independent candidate who is not going to Washington to toe the party line. She should run against the disfunction in Congress as much as she runs against Walker.
Even with Walker, Fjeld has a tough road ahead. She has an opportunity but she will need to run a smart campaign and hope for a few breaks. In particular, she needs an effective wedge issue, a message that resonates and a turnout that’s helpful. The first two are opportunities she needs to create. The third means increasing African-American turnout in a district that’s only expecting black voters to make up about 13% of the vote. Gaining another percentage or two could make the difference in a close election.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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