Last night in the final debate, Mark Harris tried to draw a contrast with Thom Tillis but he just doesn’t have it in him. His criticism was subdued and “just the facts, ma’am” polite. He needed to show a little outrage and indignation to draw the attention necessary for a boost.
His inability to land a solid blow makes Tillis look more like the inevitable nominee. In addition, Public Policy Polling will be releasing numbers this week showing Tillis nearing 50% support. And today, Pat McCrory will formally endorse Tillis. I would call that a self-inflicted wound but it must work among GOP primary voters.
I don’t think Tillis will get to 50% but I do think he will cross 40% on May 6, barring some sort of scandal or implosion. To keep him below that threshold, Harris and Greg Brannon need to reach a combined 40%. Right now, I’m not seeing it.
Here’s my math. There are four unknown candidates who will each pick up an average of 3% just for having their names on the ballot. So that’s 12%. Heather Grant gets 8-10% for being the only woman on the ballot and for making the debates. Combined, Grant and the four also-rans get, at most, 22%.
So Brannon and Harris need to combine for about 40% if they want the race to continue past May 6. And that’s a stretch. Brannon seems stuck at 15% and the negative mail from Tillis along with the growing recognition of his legal and ethical problems stunts any growth. I don’t think he gets above 17% of the vote.
In that scenario, Harris needs to reach 25% or so. Unfortunately for him, his buy is too small and his debate performances were too weak. He needed to burst onto the scene and cause a stir to grab some momentum and a portion of the base. Instead, he’s been measured and deliberate. He’s asking voters to make a conscious decision when he needed to evoke an emotional response. I think he’s stuck in the upper teens, leaving Tillis a victory on May 6.
I could be wrong, but I think it has to do more with how well Grant and the other four candidates do than Harris or Brannon. I don’t think they can get to 40% between them. I think it’s more likely that protest votes get Grant and the others to 25% or so, lowering the bar for Brannon and Harris. In the 2010 GOP primary, three unknown candidates combined for 22% in a primary with incumbent Senator Richard Burr, so anything is possible.
But today, my money is on Tillis reaching the finish line next Tuesday.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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