North Carolina House District 40: Rep. Marilyn Avila (R) vs. Former Morrisville Town Councilwoman Margaret Broadwell (D)

The state’s 40th House District takes in much of northwestern Wake County, extending from the Granville County line down to the town of Morrisville, taking in part of the town of Wake Forest and part of North Raleigh. The precincts to the north are rural and Republican; Democrats are more competitive in the south. All in all, the district strongly favors a Republican candidate, but it’s much more Democratic than it was prior to the 2011 redistricting.

Marilyn Avila (AV-uh-luh) is the current occupant of this seat. Before her election to the State House in 2006, she was a businesswoman and also a volunteer event coordinator for the John Locke Foundation. Avila is a strong conservative whose voting record is in line with her dedication to small government and commitment to free markets. Earlier this year, she received praise from the News & Observer for her stance on transparency and open government. In 2012, she won by 12 points against an underfunded opponent, Watt Jones.

Rep. Marilyn Avila (R-Raleigh), who currently represents the 40th House District.

Demographics favor Democrats becoming more competitive with time, but history looks to repeat itself in 2014, as her challenger this year is a similarly underfunded candidate named Margaret Broadwell, who raised a little more than $1,900 as of the last financial reporting period. Broadwell served as Morrisville’s first female mayor from 1995 to 1996 and also served on the Town Council until 2013.

However, there is evidence that suburban Wake County residents are leaning strongly towards Democrats this year, and Avila’s margin of victory in November will probably be in the single-digits. There is a strong Democratic presence here, particularly in Morrisville with its growing Indian population, and over time this may produce a very competitive district. But we’re not there yet.

Counties in district: Wake (part)

District Rating: Likely Republican

2012 Result
53.9% Avila (R)
41.8% Jones (D)

Voter Registration
36.8% Republican
32.9% Unaffiliated
30.0% Democratic

79.2% White
9.0% Black
11.8% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
52.5% Romney
46.2% Obama

2012 Governor
58.5% McCrory
38.6% Dalton

2010 Senate
59.2% Burr
37.9% Marshall

2008 Senate
49.8% Dole
47.2% Hagan

Social Media Support
Former Morrisville Town Councilwoman Margaret Broadwell – 1,245
Rep. Marilyn Avila – 950

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.