In 2014, incumbent Senator Kay Hagan led state House Speaker Thom Tillis throughout the year only to lose the election in the final days. A week or so before the election, an astute friend pointed out that Hagan seemed to be stuck at about 46 or 47 percent in the polls but would need at least 48% to win. He believed she had topped out below what she needed to win. It seems Brad Todd, Tillis’ media consultant, was pushing the same narrative with the press in the run up to Election Day. My friend and Todd were right.
Fast forward to today. Hillary Clinton is showing similar numbers to Kay Hagan in North Carolina. In poll after poll, she leads all of her Republican challengers, but in almost all of them her numbers are in the mid-40s. It’s certainly early, but Clinton is a known figure while Republican candidates are still introducing themselves to the public.
In a Survey USA poll done for Time Warner, Clinton gets to 48% against Scott Walker, who garners 39%, but she only leads Jeb Bush 45% to 43%. In that poll, Clinton only wins women with 50% of the vote. If she’s going to win North Carolina, she’ll need to do considerably better than that with a group that should be her base.
In the April PPP poll, Clinton fares even worse. She actually trails Walker and Mike Huckabee and her numbers are stuck at 45% or below in every match up. With women, she fails to get even 50% support, though women are slightly more undecided than men. Regardless, she’s got her work cut out for her to attract enough women to garner the votes she needs to win.
Only in the Elon University poll does she fare better. The only match up tested is Clinton and Bush. She leads 47% to 44% and wins 54% of the women. Independents also favor her a little more than they do in PPP or Survey USA. She’ll need numbers that look more like this poll if she hopes to win North Carolina.
I don’t put a lot of stock in polls 18 months out, especially head-to-heads. Voters will learn a lot more about Republican candidates over the next year and that knowledge might dramatically alter their views. However, the polls are instructive for Clinton. She has work to do among women voters in North Carolina. She will need to figure out how to grow her support with an electorate that has known her well for almost 25 years. And her fate may rest with the GOP nominee more than anything she can do.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
I feel you’re definitely not impartial. You seem to be waging an anti-Hillary campaign.
If we nominate Martin O’Malley then all this speculation about Hillary’s chances in the general election becomes moot. Today she looks unbeatable for the nomination. That’s understandable. Until a few days ago she had no challengers. And while I have great respect for Bernie Sanders, I am not placing any bets on him winning the nomination.
The question that I think is much more important and much more interesting is just how deep is Clinton’s support? Sure, her numbers for the nomination are overwhelming now. But if a credible opponent for the nomination develops and gains traction how much of her support will evaporate?
I believe there are many Democrats who would be more than pleased to vote for Clinton in November but don’t feel any particular enthusiasm for her. Voters who, if given a viable alternative, would be eager to cast a primary vote for someone else.
Everyone is assuming a Clinton nomination. And I admit it is a probability. Just not a certainty.
I don’t think rehashed crazy right wing nutjob conspiracy theories will have any impact on the outcome. But tepid and shallow support might if a true alternative presents itself.
That alternative may be polling in the low single digits today. I remember when a guy named Jimmy Carter was polling in the low single digits too. He ended up in the White House.
Hillary has not stated her opinion on the TPP, the treaty that could destroy this nation, nor has she stated her position on Social Security, among others. O’Malley has, and Senator Sanders is certainly making his thoughts known. This country could use 8 years of a President Sanders and a democratic majority in at least the senate. I just don’t want Hillary until she aligns herself with the people who first put her husband in the WH.
Tillis did not win the election, how could he have when 64% of all voters in the exit polls favored a minimum wage increase? When are we going to start questioning these improbable republican election victories – when they hold such a majority of public offices that they nullify popular elections?
Agreed!
Hillary isn’t particularly likeable and she supported Bush’s war on Iraq. Those are 2 huge hurdles for her to overcome. The likeability issue isn’t important to me but the Iraq war issue is. She displayed horrible judgment in supporting that war. She later apologized and admitted her mistake, mitigating her political damage, but I don’t want a President with such terrible judgment that she would support such a war in the first place. I’m afraid she would needlessly take us into another war. I don’t think independent voters will support her except as the lesser of two evils. A likeable, moderate Republican will easily defeat Hillary in North Carolina (even if that Republican supported Bush’s war on Iraq).
Of the 21 (more on the way) clowns running for the republican nomination, not one can be called “likeable” or “moderate”. As far as Jeb Bush, we should remember that his daddy committed, with Reagan, treason against this country, and brother George with his sidekick Cheney were traitors to this country. Are we stupid enough to allow another Bush finish us off completely?