51%. That’s the percentage of North Carolina voters in a Meredith College poll who say they’re “somewhat unlikely” or “very unlikely” to support Hillary Clinton’s candidacy in 2016. That’s compared to the 41% who say they’re somewhat likely or very likely to support her and 8% who have no clue what’s going on and are responsible for “do not hold wrong end of chainsaw” warning labels.
According to Meredith, Clinton is supported by 78% of Democrats, 10% of Republicans, and 38% of unaffiliated voters. Interestingly, there was no gender gap in Clinton’s support, with both men and women about equally likely to support her. The big difference comes in rural vs. urban, with women in urban areas far more likely to support Clinton than their rural counterparts. This is no surprise as Democrats increasingly depend on voters in the metropolitan areas of the state.
One area of concern for Clinton: the African American vote. She’s getting 78% of them right now and while that’s a strong number it’s not nearly as good as the 97% or so Obama got in his presidential campaigns. If Clinton wants to win NC she’s going to have to motivate the black vote. She’ll probably have greater support than Obama with whites so that could counter any dropoff, but a steep drop would make carrying the state a very difficult proposition.
Right now I think NC’s position in the 2016 race will be similar to where it was back in 2012: a must-win for Republicans, icing on the cake for Democrats. A swing state, but not a pure toss-up and tilting, very slightly, towards the GOP nominee. Hillary can certainly win it but she’ll have to rehabilitate her image near to where it was back when she was Secretary of State.
With Clinton looking much weaker than she seemed even two months ago, it’s looking like her ability to expand the map and put red states or even purplish-red states like NC is very much in question. Once again it seems like the battle for the White House will be fought in traditional swing states like Ohio and Florida and not in North Carolina. Expansion into states like Arizona and Georgia remain a pipe dream, as long as we’re hearing from 1990s politician Hillary and not the post-partisan stateswoman Hillary from her State Department days.
By the way, the Meredith College poll is a very interesting look at the attitudes of NC voters on women and politics. Check it out.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Polls bedamned. Clinton is anathema, defender of the wealthy and foe of the poor, warmonger to boot. I fear the pending coronation. As my grandmother said, “enough to gag a maggot”.
I don’t think these political polls have any meaning…Who exactly is answering the phone and what phone are they calling.
I support Hillary regardless of the Meredith poll.
The Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign only last week chose Clay Middleton, the trusted aide to James Clyburn as a campaign director. Given the 2014 results with Senator Kay Hagan, and the support she already has, there is really no rush to launch in the Tar Heel State. Especially, with numbers at 50%, and no republican candidates to contrast to (until this week) the Clinton team has nothing to concern themselves with here.
It’s a new age, and the progressives are still coming to terms with the fact there will be no democratic presidential primary contest to cause ill will, drain financial resources, and aid the GOP’s negative campaign group.
Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, New York and Virginia are definitely the key states, with North Carolina coming in slightly above South Dakota in present tense.
South Dakota?
Since there will be a coronation instead of a primary, and Hillary will not take any issue positions unless she’s absolutely forced to, the only possible motivation for the Progressive base to turn out would be to pick the “lesser evil” – and that ain’t gonna work this time around.
We already know from bitter experience that Hillary is a militarist neo-con, business-first, populism-never, type Democrat. So we can’t project our hopes unto her the way we did with Obama. And with some of the Republican hopefuls to Hillary’s left on foreign policy, the anti-war Dems and Independents will start projecting their hopes onto Rand Paul. Where else do they have to go? The Democratic Party has abandoned them entirely in favor of the War Machine.
So Clinton will attract the pro-war unions (no help in NC), and the groups that place the fact that she is a woman above all else (Lillian’s List, NCAE), and Wall Street and the Charlotte banks, and the big Israeli donors. But the anti-war, justice-for-the-banksters, people-over-profits, spend-the-money-here-not-over-there, groups will not turn out, the African-American vote will split more than usual, and therefore Hillary has no path to victory at all in NC.
It’s actually pretty shocking that a Democratic woman would be a more aggressive war-monger than her male Republican counter-parts, but Thatcherism is alive and well, even as its dirty secrets start to come out into the light of day. Win or lose, Hillary will never break free of it – she will always be a tool and never an innovator. It will always be child’s play for the MIC to manipulate her into whatever acts of international aggression they want – as she will never satisfy the “old boys club” insistence that she is not truly “tough enough” to “protect the realm”. This alone disqualifies her to even run for the office in some Progressive minds.
I can’t find anybody that’s excited about Hillary running for President. Resigned to its inevitability and willing to work with what we’ve got? Sure. Glad to see a woman have a chance at the Presidency? Sure. Excited? No.
Yeah, awesome “new age” we’ve got on our hands.
New York?
Whether Hillary wins in NC or not depends on how big a lunatic neo-con from the GOP Clown Car the Republicans nominate for President. If it’d Cruz, or Santorum, or Carson, she wins. If it’s Paul, or Rubio, or Bush, it’ll be a tighter race, but still Hillary-winnable….
I am certain that the Meredith Poll was performed well before Senator Cruz’s come out performance. North Carolina proved winnable in 2008, but the cars must be aligned properly, and that can happen again with the Marquee of Clinton/Cooper.
Hillary Clinton isn’t wining North Carolina-she’ll have less draw here than even Barack Obama. Count on it.