It was already difficult to predict the outcome of the Republican primary in the state’s second congressional district. Now, the rumors and “false witnessing” swirling around Washington adds an additional layer of complexity to things. We’ll have to wait for the dust to settle to evaluate Congresswoman Renee Ellmers’ chances at reelection.
In a primary, only one number matters for Ms. Ellmers: 40%. If multiple conservative challengers split the anti-incumbent vote, then she’ll be in good shape as long as she retains her base. That’s because 40% is all it takes in North Carolina to avoid a runoff. A higher threshold would make things much dicier for her.
It’s very uncommon for an incumbent to fail to clear 40%. So long as they have money to run ads and consolidate support before the primary, they should be in good shape. The exceptions are incumbents who are severely out of step with their own voters ideologically, and more commonly, incumbents who are entangled in scandal (real or perceived).
It’s not at all clear just how many likely voters are aware of the Ellmers/McCarthy stuff. But added to Ellmers’ preexisting problems, the rumors could very well force her under 40%, resulting in a runoff with one of her challengers in a low-turnout race dominated by Tea Party activists who are just about ready to march on Washington.
Given her precarious position, Ellmers might have to consider using the stories to her advantage (assuming that most voters are aware of the negative stories.) There is a possible parallel in Nikki Haley, who in 2010 was elected governor of South Carolina after a very nasty campaign where several men came forward accusing her of infidelity. Most voters saw the rumors as desperate and false attacks by those who wanted to retain the status quo. They failed and Haley is considered a rising star in the party and a possible candidate for vice president. Maybe Ellmers can similarly benefit by garnering the support of women sympathetic to the rigors of being a female in politics.
Again, it’s possible the gossip will die out and Ellmers’ only concern will be whether Republicans see her as faithful to the conservative agenda. But right now she’s in a weaker position than she was a week ago in a race where additional weaknesses can’t be permitted. The dynamics have changed and her campaign is going to have to respond accordingly.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
What are the false witness rumours? What’s the story?
When Kevin McCarthy withdrew from the contest for Speaker of the House, one of the reasons given by “unnamed insiders” was that he had skeletons in his closet and was scared of exposure by a conservative big-money activist out of Chicago. One skeleton was that he has had affairs, including one with Ellmers.
Who knows if it’s true? Who cares? Who can do anything about a right-winger’s election in that district–as Mooser points out?
Wow, look at the shape of that district! Whew!
It’s a lot easier to believe a rumor about someone who plays the “talks one way at home, votes another way in Washington” game, and Ellmers is definitely one of those. Throw in her history of poor constituent service and, well yeah, she’s got a credibility problem even if the rumor is 100% bogus. She doesn’t connect well with the folks back home and that’s guaranteed to provide her with a built-in vulnerability which ordinarily wouldn’t be exposed PROVIDED that she has nothing else to worry about.
I was willing to listen to her side until she wrapped herself in the bible. I have to Wonder. I know sometimes one has a work wife and a home wife. We’re men that’s what we do.
I would never vote for Ellmers, but I would support efforts to oppose the rumor mongering. It is wrong to smear anyone, and I seriously doubt she or anyone in public office (other than a complete idiot) would so publicly and strongly deny these rumors if there were any truth to them.
What?! Well, Renee Ellmers has proven time and again that she IS a complete idiot, and you can bet that there’s more than a little truth to the rumors. And that you “seriously doubt…anyone in public office…would so publicly and strongly deny these rumors if there were any truth to them” tells me that you haven’t been paying ANY attention for the past, oh, 50 years.