This seat became open when incumbent John C. Martin announced his retirement. The announcement was a surprise, and it was too late in the game for the race to be winnowed down to only two people. Past the primary, an eye-popping 19 candidates filed to run. Which means, technically, that this race can be won with a little more than 5% of the vote. Not by. With.

Many voters, not surprisingly, will skip this contest. It’s at the very end of the ballot, some voters tend to skip judicial races as it is, with many not feeling comfortable voting for someone about whom they know nothing. The lack of partisan labels is also a deterrence. This, then, will be a race decided by high-information voters – those who have done the research, know the candidates, and have carefully evaluated which one is the most qualified.

Or not. Sometimes, in a race with this many candidates, simple things like ballot order or even the candidate’s last name have proven decisive. So, who has the edge in this race? Which candidates can break from this unruly pack and have the best chance of winning this seat? First, let’s give an overview at the candidates. Where applicable, I’ve linked to the candidate’s campaign site:

John S. Arrowood – Democrat, former member of the NC Court of Appeals. From Charlotte.

Betsy Bunting – Democrat, retired attorney. From Raleigh.

Lori G. Christian – Democrat, Wake County District Court judge. From Cary. African American.

Jeffrey Cook – Republican, attorney, from Clayton.

J. Brad Donovan – Unaffiliated, deputy commissioner of the N.C. Industrial Commission. From Raleigh.

Daniel Patrick Donahue – Democrat, attorney. From Hertford.

Sabra Jean Faires – Unaffiliated, attorney, in private practice in Wake County.

Abe Jones – Democrat, former Wake County Superior Court judge, from Raleigh. African American.

Ann Kirby – Republican. Assistant public defender, in New Bern.

Keischa Lovelace – Democrat, deputy commissioner of the N.C. Industrial Commission. From Raleigh.

Marty Martin – Democrat, lawyer, Raleigh.

Hunter Murphy – Republican, lawyer, Waynesville.

Jody A. Newsome – Unaffiliated Raleigh attorney. A man.

Elizabeth Davenport Scott – Lawyer, Raleigh, Republican.

Tricia Shields – Cary attorney and Democrat.

John M. Tyson – former NC Court of Appeals judge, Fayetteville, Republican.

Marion Warren – District Court judge from Ash, Republican. (Ash is in Brunswick County.)

Chuck Winfree – Lawyer, Greensboro, Republican.

Valerie Johnson Zachary – Attorney, Yadkinville, Republican.

Of this varied bunch of lawyers, three stand out. The first is John Arrowood. Arrowood has served on the Court in the past so he has some name recognition. Of the 19 candidates, he is the only one who is openly gay and has been endorsed by the state Democratic Party. The small but influential NC LGBT community should rally around his candidacy. He should benefit from being on top. Candidates coming first on the ballot usually receive a bit of a boost. Note: Arrowood is near the bottom of the ballot. The person at the top is Marion Warren. Therefore, it would not be at all surprising for Arrowood to finish with a plurality.

Next is John Tyson. He is also a former Court of Appeals judge, but he is a Republican and is being backed by his state’s party. He has some name recognition and he along with Arrowood are probably favored to win the seat, but who knows. Tyson says he’s the candidate with the most experience. If I was forced to bet money, I’d bet Tyson wins in the end. Republicans tend to turn out more during midterms and Democrats are more likely to skip judicial races (which is why we’re no longer hearing North Carolina conservatives advocate for a return to partisan labels in these races, as this is to their advantage now.)

There’s also Keischa Lovelace. She is being endorsed by the North Carolina Democratic Black Caucus. Ms. Lovelace should benefit from African American support, and that could be enough to pull off the win. Remember, only a plurality is needed to win in this race. No instant runoff, so we’ll probably know the winner before December.

There will probably be a large dropoff in votes for this contest. No one wants to research 19 candidates and determine which one is the best. A lot of people are going to be uncomfortable voting in a contest where they know nothing about the candidates. A surprise could be in order. One of the candidates, J. Brad Donovan, believes that some who have filed aren’t putting in any effort – not attending any campaign events, not making any yard signs; he believes they have just filed a statement of candidacy and are hoping for the best.

The three candidates mentioned above – Arrowood, Tyson, and Lovelace – are probably the most favored, but in a race this crowded, with low turnout, anything could happen. I think Arrowood and Tyson have the best chance of pulling it off, followed by Lovelace, but who knows. Abe Jones, former Superior Court judge, also bears mentioning, as does J. Brad Donovan, who is running an active campaign on social media and elsewhere on the Internet. One thing’s for sure: your vote counts for a lot here, so do the research, choose the best candidate, and vote!

And finally, a breakdown of the candidates by their number of ‘likes’ on Facebook is below. For three candidates, no Facebook group supporting their candidacy was found. Needless to say, those three candidates are probably not going to be elected to the Court of Appeals next week.

Hunter Murphy – 2,196
Marion Warren – 1,932
John Tyson – 1,098
Keischa Lovelace – 439
Elizabeth Davenport Scott – 334
J. Brad Donovan – 331
John Arrowood – 315
Marty Martin – 199
Abe Jones – 193
Ann Kirby – 132
Chuck Winfree – 125
Lori G. Christian – 120
Valerie Johnson Zachary – 58
Jody A. Newsome – 54
Sabra Jean Faires – 47
Betsy Bunting – 10