We’re getting a clearer picture of who might (and might not) run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Richard Burr. There are no declared candidates yet, but the names are being whittled down. Here’s an update on the current status of Burr’s potential Democratic challengers, categorized by their interest in running and how much buzz they’re getting:
The “Buzz” Candidates – the names we’ve been hearing a lot lately
State Sen. Dan Blue
State Treasurer Janet Cowell
Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham
Former U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan
State Sen. Jeff Jackson
State Rep. Grier Martin
The “Haven’t heard from them in a while” candidates – names who have appeared in the past but have been coming up much less frequently lately
Minority Leader Larry Hall
Mayor Allen Joines
Former Rep. Mike McIntyre
UNC President Tom Ross
Former Rep. Heath Shuler
Mayor Allen Thomas
The “not running” candidates – folks who have expressed disinterest in running
Secretary Anthony Foxx
Mayor Nancy McFarlane
Mayor Charles Meeker
Former Rep. Brad Miller
Some thoughts:
-Kay Hagan is still the top choice of the DSCC. Her proven ability to raise money, foreign policy expertise, and campaign experience would combine to make her a formidable candidate against Burr. But her chances of mounting a 2016 campaign are probably less than 50-50.
-Because Hagan is no sure thing to run again, Democrats have a backup in mind: State Treasurer Janet Cowell. Problem is, folks aren’t betting on her running either.
-Burr consultant Paul Shumaker says former State Sen. Cal Cunningham is also on the Democrat shortlist. It’s unclear how high up he is on the totem pool. Cunningham ran for the same seat in 2010 but lost in the primary to Elaine Marshall.
-After Hagan and Cowell, the names of a handful of state legislators come up. Among them are Dan Blue, Jeff Jackson, and Grier Martin. When asked about a potential candidacy, Blue, who is black, said he’s focused only on organizing the State Senate races for 2016, which means he isn’t focused on them at all. Blue ran for Senate back in 2002 so it’s clear he has the ambition. Then there’s Jeff Jackson (D-Buzzfeed), who says the thought of a Senate campaign hasn’t even crossed his mind, which in politician-speak means he lies awake every night thinking about one.
-Then there are some names who have almost completely dropped off the radar entirely. Among these are Reps. Mike McIntyre and Heath Shuler. They were never likely to run in the first place but it’s almost time to remove them from the potential candidate list. The two Mayor Allens – Allen Joines of Winston-Salem and Allen Thomas of Greenville – have received some buzz in the past but not lately. Rep. Larry Hall, currently Minority in the NC House, is still a possible candidate. Two weeks ago he introduced a bill that would expand early voting and make it easier for college students to register. It’s certainly a political move but whether or not it’s geared toward winning a primary or winning more seats in the legislature is an open question.
-UNC President Tom Ross received a lot of buzz after his non-political dismissal by the UNC Board of Governors, but if the DSCC is courting him, they’re keeping it under wraps. If Ross has any interest at all, we’ll be hearing more about it soon.
-Then there are four candidates who have pretty much indicated they’re not running, so thanks, but no thanks. These include former Mayor of Charlotte and former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx, Rep. Brad Miller, former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker and current Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarlane. Miller’s lack of interest should be disappointing to readers, as the progressive Miller has always had a considerable base of support among the NC netroots. He came in third on our exclusive PoliticsNC Democratic Senate primary poll, winning 12% of the vote. The rumor is that Miller covets the congressional seat of David Price, but right now Miller seems more than happy working at his New York law firm and isn’t planning a return to electoral politics.
-Regardless of who the Democratic nominee ends up being, the Burr campaign is taking nothing for granted and plans to run an aggressive campaign. Burr’s vote to provide benefits to married same-sex couples is one indication that he knows North Carolina is a swing state and the next election will be a competitive one. The North Carolina race made #9 on the Washington Post’s most competitive Senate races of the 2016 cycle. That ranking could move up or down depending on the quality of the candidate the Democrats recruit.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Fracking Damn autocorrect.
I wrote my name in for Senate when faced with the gag vote for Hagan. If anyone coming out of nothing but a long study of governance and the creating of a model nation has a chance like a snowball in hell, it would be me. However I have written the obligatory politicians book: Poor Buzz & Stories from Warning for My Daughter. Previously I campaigned for a seat on the Orange County Airport Authority. I have joined up as Vice Chair of the Carrboro Precinct of the Democratic Party. I am working class and champion the minimum wage and unions. I am a member of IATSE local 491, though long in abatement. I’ve been injured and have a chronic arthritic condition. The illness would require me to state limits on my time and movements. – To be honest about it. I have invented the currency the Insurodollar to challenge the Petrodollar Imperative that ensures environmental degradation. I had serious issues with Hagan for her support of the Keystone pipeline. Especially in light of NC State’s hog waste systems that could provide renewable natural gas obviating tracking threats to aquifers. Cutting down all the trees and poisoning the water is how to destroy your country. I am for the legalization of pot. Theocrats who feel comfortable denying sources of work and income, along with ways of life not in accord with their own ought not be allowed to force poverty and criminal status down the throats of other citizens. The 26 to 17 percent of NC living in poverty are living in poverty only because others decide they are to be made poor. The Transportation Infrastructure must be designed to advance civilian prosperity, for the civilians are charged to pay for defense and education, and can’t pay for it if they are impoverished.
I’m for knocking over monuments that honor the dishonorable, as I judge those monuments like the CSA, KKK greeter on the campus of UNC-CH, “Silent Sam”. If your goals are unethical and twisted you ought not get a memorial. States Rights as a way to get around the goals of equality and fairness are to be seen for what they are. -Russell Scott Day
“Burr consultant Paul Shumaker says former State Sen. Cal Cunningham is also on the Democrat shortlist.”
Yes, and Shumaker must be a solid source because Democratic recruiters are sure to be sharing their strategy with a consultant for their opponent.
Dude, you certainly have soaked up enough bytes speculating about who might or might not run in a Democratic primary for Senate in 2016. My question is why spends so much time going on about something you know little about? As a good spear carrying Republican why not talk about the General Assembly or even McCrory. One would think you would be more willing to talk about your own…be proud of what is going on on Jones Street.
“Burr’s vote to provide benefits to married same-sex couples is one indication that he knows North Carolina is a swing state and the next election will be a competitive one.”
It’s also a move that will cost Burr votes from the neo-con, Tea Party, and evangelical elements in his party. And I doubt it will earn him any additional votes from moderates, progressives and liberals.