Today is the day of the second primary here in North Carolina. The last time we held a runoff election, only 3.5% of registered voters came. To look at it another way, 96.5% of registered voters in North Carolina were doing something else besides voting. Emphasis on the registered voters. Basically, if you cast a ballot today, you’re nearly in the 1%.

That means, though, that today you wield an incredible amount of power over electoral outcomes, if you are privileged enough to live in an area where a second primary is being held. Because of the low turnout, polling is dreadfully unreliable and predictions hard to make, but I’m going to make some anyway for the few notable races on the ballot in various parts of the state.

NC-06 Congressional GOP Primary This will be the marquee contest of the night. Rockingham County DA Phil Berger Jr. is going up against pastor Mark Walker of Greensboro. This race has gotten very ugly. Walker has unified the anti-Berger element around his candidacy, which seems based more on personal grudges than any real concerns about Berger’s conservatism.

Last Friday, there was a real barnburner of a debate. Bizarrely, Walker dropped a “bombshell”, claiming that Berger had been reprimanded by the U.S. Supreme Court in Berger v. United States. The problem? It was a different Berger, and the case was from 1935. The absurd claim caused Berger to state that Walker was unfit for office “at any level”. Both men have pledged to support the other’s candidacy should he receive the nomination.

Failure to unify the party could have consequences in November, leading to an opening for Democrat Laura Fjeld in November. But tonight will be Berger’s night. Even though a lot of observers think this will be pretty close, I’m going to go out on a limb and say Berger wins by a clear margin, 57-43.

NC-05 Congressional Democratic Primary Today, Democrats will also choose their candidate to face Virginia Foxx in November, the most hated U.S. Representative from NC among the progressive left. Neither Josh Brannon, a software developer who lives near Boone, or Gardenia Henley, a former federal employee from Winston-Salem, have much of a chance here. Brannon seems to have more support on social media (like another candidate who shares his last name), so I predict he’ll win. Just for the heck of it, I’ll pick some numbers out of the air and say he wins 56-44, though really I have no clue and it won’t be of any consequence anyway.

House District 23 Democratic Primary House District 23 includes the eastern counties of Edgecombe and Martin. The district is majority African American and winning the runoff is tantamount to election. The candidates are Rusty Holderness, a businessman and community leader from Tarboro, and Shelly Willingham, who has served as an Edgecombe County Commissioner, ABC Board Chairman, and on the Edgecombe County Board of Elections. Willingham led the first primary and is also African American, while Holderness is white, a factor which may prove decisive given the racial composition of the electorate.

Wake County District Attorney Republican Primary Highly respected Democrat Colon Willoughby’s retirement after three decades in office made this an open seat race. This runoff is a contest between two men with quite similar backgrounds. Both John Bryant and Jeff Cruden are former Democrats – Bryant even ran as a Democrat for State Senate back in 1996 – and both are attorneys who invoke the name of Ronald Reagan. Based on social media support, because there’s nothing else to go on, I’m going to predict Jeff Cruden wins. The victor of this runoff will go up against Nancy Lorrin Freeman, currently the Wake County Clerk of Superior Court, in November.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.