First off, the most obvious thing to watch out for. 40%. Does Tillis clear it? The nomination, the control of the Senate, the fate of the country might hinge on the answer.
With all the action on the Republican side, one might forget that Kay Hagan has her own primary to contend with. Back in 2010, Richard Burr got 80% of the primary vote. That’s about as low as one can go without it being an indication of some big discontent with the incumbent. Hagan backers should hope she get at least twice the percentage of the vote that Tillis gets in her primary.
Geographic distribution: How many counties does Tillis win? Will any of the minor candidates like Heather Grant, Ted Alexander, etc. win any counties? How about turnout? Look for 2010 as a basis of comparison. Republicans should hope that about 50% of voters opt for a Republican ballot if they want a repeat of 2010 (which would be a disaster for Democrats).
NC-02, NC-03, NC-06, and NC-07 all play host to at least somewhat competitive Republican primaries. Will there be an upset in any of them? The biggest upset, of course, would be if Frank Roche somehow knocks off Renee Ellmers. It doesn’t look very likely, but never say never. On the Democratic side, NC-12 is the one to watch. Can George Battle pull off a surprise second-place victory? Adams looks secure for the runoff, and there’s a chance she could even win outright.
Election Day always has its share of surprises. This is even more true in a low-turnout primary, where the Tea Party is seeking to assert itself. One thing is for sure, your vote here matters more than ever. You can play a role of shaping the outcome in many critical races. So vote! (Unless you’re not backing the right candidate, that is.)
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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