In 2010 and 2012, Republicans missed opportunities to take the U. S. Senate, in large part, because of their nominees. By all accounts, Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, probably Colorado and quite possibly Connecticut would all have elected Republican senators if the GOP hadn’t nominated candidates outside of the mainstream. They don’t want the same thing to happen this year.
So yesterday, Governor Pat McCrory waded into the U. S. Senate primary in North Carolina. He told the Washington Post that House Speaker Thom Tillis has the best chance of unseating Kay Hagan in November. It’s a refrain we will likely hear a lot going down the stretch of the GOP primary.
North Carolina is seen as key to the Republicans’ chances of taking over the Senate this year. Establishment Republicans and most political observers see Tillis as the strongest candidate. However, he has to get through a May primary with eight candidate and needs more than 40% of the vote to avoid a runoff that would drag the nominating process into July.
While the GOP establishment sees Tillis as their best shot, conservative Republicans see the speaker as a panderer and pretender. Both Greg Brannon and Mark Harris say the speaker’s missteps in the legislature make him unelectable and true believers think the path to victory lies in ideological purity.
In this environment, look for GOP leaders to start making the case that Tillis is the most electable candidate. They’re going to ask GOP primary voters to put practicality ahead of ideology. While it’s ostensibly an argument to win the grand prize–control of the U. S. Senate–it’s also an attempt to moderate a party that has been moving increasingly to the right.
The establishment can’t win primaries with money alone, so they are appealing to reason. Given the makeup of Republican primary voters, that might be a stretch.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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