North Carolina Democrats have a lot riding on their shoulders this election cycle. Next year, they need to do at least one of the following: either elect Roy Cooper governor, knock off Richard Burr in the U.S. Senate, or deliver the state’s 15 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton. Failure to do any of those things would make the 2010s the NC Democrats’ lost decade.
The 2016 cycle is their last chance to recover it because 2018 is a “blue moon” election year without any competitive races at the top of the ballot. This hasn’t been a friendly past six years for Democrats, which to many is a head-scratcher because the state is supposed to be getting more competitive.
Although it would be imprudent to discount Republicans’ superior advantage in money and infrastructure, Democrats in North Carolina have also been victims of two other important factors: timing and luck. In 2010, their majorities in the General Assembly were wiped out in the Tea Party wave. Two years later Democrats nationally had a good year, but not in North Carolina. Democrat Bev Perdue was unpopular and the state was ready to elect a Republican governor for the first time in decades. Finally, the new GOP majorities in the legislature used the power of the pen to redraw the district lines and make them more favorable to their candidates. So while 2012 was a good year for Team Blue, in North Carolina it was a banner year for Republicans.
In 2014, it looked like the state was once again willing to buck national trends – to the benefit of Democrats. Although the GOP looked to be riding a historic tide, the environment was different in North Carolina, and Kay Hagan was holding strong thanks to a campaign where state issues, particularly on education, were prominent. But the Hagan campaign could not overcome the national dynamics for long, and in October the race broke Tillis’s way. At the same time, Republicans increased their hold on the state’s congressional delegation, sending 10 Republicans to Washington and only 3 Democrats. The one bright spot was that Democrats managed to pick up a few seats in the State House – but they actually lost ground in the State Senate and Republicans kept their veto-proof majorities in both chambers regardless.
The 2016 cycle is an opportunity for Democrats to break the pattern of defeat, and the governor’s race in particular. The latest poll shows Governor Pat McCrory with a narrow, 2-point edge over Cooper, with the Attorney General unknown to many voters and a lot of people undecided.
McCrory/Cooper is also going to get a lot of attention because Democrats don’t look to be as competitive elsewhere, at least for now. Richard Burr is seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate and his race is seen as a lesser-tier contest. In the presidential race, observers expect the race to be less competitive than in 2008 and 2012 and leaning Republican – though with the GOP primary a total mess, anything can happen.
Still, the governor’s race is widely anticipated to be the most competitive contest, with the closest final outcome. If Cooper ekes out a victory, he’ll redeem North Carolina Democrats and his win will be a bright light in a generally dark and dismal decade. But if he loses, it probably means the party of Terry Sanford and Jim Hunt will have suffered a consistent losing streak throughout the 2010s – for Tar Heel progressives, truly a lost decade.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
You guys just don’t get it. This state is now solidly in the conservative, pro lilfe, anti gay marriage corner. You may think it is noble to die on the hill of those two issues but in the end it is the middle class working guy and small biz owner who is losing not to mention education.. Either understand this fact and find pro life dems to run or lose this decade and the one to come.
More of the futile media war against Bernie Sanders. Keep it up. Just adds fuel to the growing rank and file anger against the pro-Hillary corporate wing of the Democratic Party.
In the last few days the Sanders campaign has appropriately raised a storm about the Bernie Blackout and the wildly disproportionate time of coverage the mainstream news media has given to Trump and all other candidates. But, the blatant bias and misleading way in which the news is reported is equally important.
A few days ago Bloomberg News reported on the results of its new poll taken a few days earlier. The headline of the news story reads “Clinton Increases Iowa Lead Over Sanders.” The New York Times used this story as the basis of its article headlined, “Hillary Clinton Widens Lead Over Bernie Sanders in Iowa Poll.” CBS says, “Clinton Expands Lead Over Sanders in Iowa.” The Washington Post? “Bernie Sanders’ Momentum Problem.”
Now lets take a close look at this new poll released by Bloomberg in conjunction with The Des Moines Register. It claims that 48% of likely Democratic participants in the caucuses favor Clinton, while 39% favor Sanders. In other words, Clinton is up by only 9% according to this poll.
Wait a minute. On December 8, Monmouth University released a poll giving Clinton a lead of 55% to 33%, a 22% lead. Now it’s only 9%. Doesn’t this mean that Sanders is gaining rapidly? Yes, it does, if we accept the validity of these polls. But, the reporting on the polls by the MSM has spun the facts to try to make the public believe the exact opposite.
It turns out the Bloomberg report is comparing its latest results to the last poll THEY took in early October before the first debate and before Joe Biden left the race. In that earlier poll Clinton had 42 % compared to Sanders 37%. In other words most of Clinton’s gain can be attributed to Biden’s departure. It did not come at the expense of Sanders’ support that actually increased 2%, as well, in the latest poll.
Since early October much has happened. Biden left. There have been two Democratic debates. The Bengazi hearings have come and gone. The terrorist attacks in Paris took place. According to the mainstream news media Hillary’s poll numbers have soared and she is again the “inevitable” Democratic Nominee six weeks before the first primary ballots have been cast.
Wouldn’t it make more sense to compare these latest poll results to results gathered in the last week or two, rather than to results gathered in the beginning of October? But, to do so would reveal that Bernie Sanders has continued to build momentum at the expense of Clinton’s support. The mainstream media doesn’t want to report that.
This dynamic is another indication that we are involved in a revolution. The mainstream media (and apparently John Wynne) is at war with the Bernie Sanders campaign. The corporate media and their Wall Street/billionaire class owners recognize the Sanders’ candidacy as a real threat to its longstanding dominance over the American people and they are conducting themselves against this campaign in a way no less hostile than they would be against a foreign enemy at war with the United States of America. Truth is no longer a goal or criteria in reporting. The object of reporting is now purely for the manipulation of public opinion.
Fortunately, most people no longer get most of their news from the mainstream news media.
Social media and news from the World Wide Web floods the consciousness of new America. We are going to win this war.
Hillary is not the democratic candidate, and the assumption is truly insulting to voters and the process of a democratic election itself. Roy Cooper would have had not only my vote, but also my volunteer campaign support if he had not stooped so low as to join the anti-refugee talk–I am hoping there may be another choice for the dems for Governor, because that move absolutely disgusted me. Vote tampering, voter discrimination, and gerrymandering need to be taken into account as the truly urgent issues they are in NC. If we don’t get legal decisions on voter ID, and gerrymandering, if we don’t get international poll observers, if we don’t pressure the democratic party and the major media to give genuine coverage to the issues, the truth, and the candidates, and if we don’t overturn citizens united, we are lost. It is time to stop pretending we can play this game by unjust rules and squeeze by with a weak win.
Still wondering why Bev Perdue dropped out. And why state Dems all over the country bent-over and kissed their asses goodbye just because OFA and the DNC told them to bow-down before OFA. If we had kept the 50 state strategy around the country, and the 100-county strategy we used here in NC from 2005-2008 – and not listened to the consultants – we wouldn’t have gotten hammered so bad. Am sincerely hoping that the Bernie Sanders campaign will turn that around and take the Democratic party BACK from the establishment Dems who squandered a 112-year old home-field advantage, even one that was built on the back of a racist coup in Wilmington in 1898.
Interesting points. In 2013 the Democrats did quite well in municipal races and repeated the performance in 2015. In the Triangle, Democrats took control of the county commissions in Chatham, Lee and Wake, which led to the NCGA’s effort to draw new districts and stem Democratic control in Wake County. Finally, Democrats elected three supreme court justices and two appellate court justices in 2014 and if Democrats were united behind one candidate we could have won the other appellate court race as well. In fair elections with districts that are reasonably drawn, I believe that Democrats would win narrow majorities in both legislative houses and have a 7 to 6 majority in the congressional districts.
Two questions:
1. How does failure to “deliver the state’s 15 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton” contribute to any so-called lost decade if Clinton wins the presidency anyway?
2. And if strong support of Trump in NC contributes to the unraveling of the GOP at the national level, how is that a minus on the Dem side of the ledger?
And a lost decade for telling the truth. Contrary to Mr. Wynn’s repeated pronouncements (ad nauseam) to the contrary, Beverly Purdue was anything but an ‘unpopular governor’ and she would have trounced Duke Energy’s ‘golden boy’ if a terrified Purdue hadn’t mysterious quit the race at the eleventh hour. – however, speaking the truth is not a republikan virtue. It won’t matter what democratic candidates due in future elections if electronic voting machine continue operating with out verification safeguards, because the machines proprietary property belong to republican affiliated corporations and therefore can’t be independently checked for accuracy. Only in recent elections, using these type of machines, have vote tallies defied exit poll results.
And a “lost” decade for so many needs that are getting short changed. A “lost” decade for fairness in restriction free voting. A “lost” decade for improving education. Etc, etc, etc.