With the legislature finally gone home, the US Senate race is going to take center stage in North Carolina. Democrats will continue trying to link Tillis to the legislature and Republicans will amp up their efforts to make Hagan a surrogate for Obama. This election is not going to be about voting for anyone.

While national pundits seem to believe the political environment favors Tillis, in North Carolina we’re living in a parallel universe. The headlines focus on cuts to education and the bickering in the legislature, not what is happening in Washington. For most people here, the conversation is centered on state issues, not national ones. 

Yes, Obama is unpopular, and no, people don’t like Obamacare. But neither the president nor his signature program seem to carry much emotional punch. Twitter, Facebook and the TV screens might be focused on Hagan voting for Obamacare or voting with the president 95% of the time, but most voters aren’t.

Here’s the problem. While people don’t like Obamacare, it’s a general dislike, not a passionate one. Republicans overplayed their hand on the issue. After years of ads, most people expected to either lose their coverage, see their premiums skyrocket or watch the economy collapse. None of it happened. Instead, for the vast majority of people, not much changed at all. If Obamacare is your primary issue, then you were never going to vote for Kay Hagan anyway.

The Tillis attack that Hagan voted with Obama 95% of the time is also going to fall short. It’s a take off on the 2008 Hagan ad that accused Elizabeth Dole of voting with George Bush 92% of the time. But it’s not the same thing. The dissatisfaction has less to do with any specific policy and more to do with a general malaise. Instead of being angry about specific issues like a war that had been dragging on for five years and an economy in the midst of collapse, people are frustrated with an ineffective government and Obama’s part in it. But there’s no emotion driving the dissatisfaction. 

In contrast, the anger at the legislature is palpable and as families go back to school they are going to be reminded of the cuts that the GOP denies occurred. Education in North Carolina is the holy grail. Our public universities and community colleges have been a source state pride and unity. The Republican cuts have been offensive. As Speaker of the House, Tillis will have a hard time separating himself from policies enacted by the General Assembly.

Republicans keep saying turnout this year favors the GOP and cite the 2010 electorate. I’m not buying that one. I think the make up of the electorate (not total votes) will look much more like 2012 than the last midterm. One thing the Democrats have down is GOTV. This year, unlike 2010, millions of dollars will poured into the ground game. Groups like Planned Parenthood and NAACP are already at work. The DSCC is investing heavily as are other nonpartisan organizations. And each constituency has specific issues like voter suppression or cuts to women’s health to motivate voters.

Finally, over the past couple weeks, I’ve seen polling in legislative and countywide races that should have Republicans scrambling. Incumbents are down by double digits in districts the GOP should be taking for granted and one poll apparently even has Senate President Pro-tem Phil Berger in dangerous territory. If these numbers are right, then anger at the legislature, not at Congress, could drive the electorate in November. 

I’m not ready to call this election for anybody, but, at this point in the cycle, the political environment in the state carries as much weight as the one nationally. November 4th will be a late night.

Thomas Mills

Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >