The latest poll from PPP finds Trump and Clinton tied in the state of North Carolina with 44% each. Both Trump and Clinton have nearly identical favorable ratings (Trump’s is 33/58, Clinton’s is 34/58).
North Carolina is a must-win state for Trump in the general election. He’s winning 16% of Democrats but only leads independents by 5. 11% of Republicans cross over to support Hillary Clinton. The undecided column contains more Republicans and independents than Democrats and more whites than blacks. If Trump can just marginally improve his numbers, then he has a very good chance at keeping North Carolina red this year.
Interestingly, Trump takes 14% of blacks. He’s only up 21 with white voters (Mitt Romney carried two-thirds of this demographic in 2012). I think the final result, whatever it is, will show more racial polarization than this poll is showing – Trump will do worse with blacks than this poll indicates but better with whites.
Now for the Senate race. PPP finds Richard Burr with his smallest lead on Deborah Ross to date. He takes 40% of the vote while Ross takes 36% of the vote. The race is tied with women but Burr leads with men by 8. Sean Haugh takes 7%, drawing about equally from both Democrats and Republicans.
Other interesting tidbits:
*4% of blacks have an unfavorable opinion of Harriet Tubman.
*Bernie Sanders’ favorability rating (34/54) is also pretty bad.
*Trump’s strongest area code is 252 (Eastern North Carolina). He’s weakest in 919 (the Research Triangle).
*Obama’s approval rating is 43/53.
*Thom Tillis’s approval rating is 23/38.
*There’s a huge partisan gap on Bruce Springsteen. Democrats love him; Republicans don’t.
*27% of voters describing themselves as “very liberal” have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
The fact that Trump is tied with Clinton in North Carolina should be a strong signal to the DNC that Hillary Clinton is a terribly weak candidate who may very well lose to this modern day Mussolini.
She will not have enough pledged delegates to claim the nomination, so the super-delegates will decide.
Bernie Sanders will be a much stronger candidate for the Democratic Party against Trump (or anyone else).
North Carolina could be an important barometer in a Clinton vs Trump November election. In 2008, Obama squeaked by in North Carolina with one-third of a percentage point but won comfortably nationally. In 2012, Romney carried the state by 2 percentage points but lost nationally. That suggests if Clinton wins North Carolina, she would easily win nationally; if she narrowly loses North Carolina, she would still win nationally. Only if she’s losing North Carolina by a significant margin would it signal that Clinton is losing nationally.
“*4% of blacks have an unfavorable opinion of Harriet Tubman.”
Looks like a real game changer.