According to twitter, Kay Hagan is not running for US Senate against Richard Burr. It’s a set back for establishment Democrats who saw her as the best candidate. However, her announcement opens up new opportunities for a fresh face to jump into the race.
There’s still plenty of time to get started. Kay Hagan didn’t enter the race against Liddy Dole until October 2007. The money in politics today makes it easier, not harder, for candidates who get a late start. Third party groups can provide them cover until they get their fundraising operations up and going. It worked for Thom Tillis, who not only was a relatively weak fundraiser but also faced a competitive primary.
The current political environment begs for an African-American candidate. In the wake of Trayvon Martin, Eric Garner, Ferguson, Baltimore and now Charleston, the country is the midst of a national debate about race. As this conversation advances, we need more than just the two African-American voices currently in the US Senate. And we certainly need African-Americans who have experienced life in the South.
Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx may have told Richard Burr that he wouldn’t run for the seat, but the equation has changed. With the discussion now moving through the country, giving African-Americans a more representative voice in Congress’s upper chamber trumps keeping a political promise. Foxx should reconsider his earlier decision.
State Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue, Jr., should also be weighing his options. Blue was the first African-American Speaker of the House in a Southern state since reconstruction. He’s been coy about his thinking but has not made any moves indicating a run, possibly because he was waiting on Hagan. The state Senate might be keeping him busy but he can still wage a campaign.
Other potential candidates who should be thinking about it include Congresswoman Alma Adams, former Congressman and current Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency Mel Watt, Congressman G. K. Butterfield, and state House Minority Leader Larry Hall. There may be others but these leaders all have extensive experience. All except Watt would need to give up safe seats to run. However, as the saying goes, “With great risk, comes great reward.”
This election cycle will be twenty years since Harvey Gantt made his second run for Senate against Jesse Helms. He came within 7%. The state has changed drastically since then. Obama won in 2008 and almost won in 2012, but no other African-American candidate has been at the top of the state ticket since Gantt. It’s time one is there again.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
Let’s face it — the Democratic party has very few potentially-successful candidates to run for Governor and the US Senate in 2016. Our number one person is Roy Cooper, and if he would run for the Senate seat, we could expect our party’s national committee to throw money into the race. If we instead run a person who is not well-known outside his or her home area, as most of the bloggers at this site are suggesting, the national party will not put up any funds, as was the case for the Democratic Congressional candidates in 2014. Here is another thought — both Roy and McCrory are personable and well-liked by a large contingent of the voters. They often attend public events, even in the far western part of the state. Burr is not.personable and comes off as a grump. I have yet to see him personally at any such events. This is our chance to take down an unpopular Republican Senator, and we should jump on it. BTW, I personally like Elaine Marshall also, but I understand that she is not interested in either race.
Unless McCrory makes a significant mis-step, I don’t think Cooper is going to beat him. Close probably, and it is early to make predictions — especially from someone who has lived here for just over two years. (Have had long connections, however, to the state, so not quite a newcomer.)
Against Burr, less certain but if the next few months continue as the past couple with a slight drift to the left, even in this state, then I think an African-American candidate might be a better choice for a Senate run. Not one, however, with too much establishment baggage.
But the funding needed is going to be shocking even after the Hagan/Tillis race. No one should underestimate the national efforts that would be made, however, if a strong candidate for the Senate steps up. It would improve the odds of taking the Senate too much for national funders to ignore.
I think it shows the state of the Democratic Party that these are the best folks we can put forward. None of these black prospects have ever won outside of a majority black district. Until the Main Street Democrats group gets up and running I don’t see things changing.
Nonsense. None of the people you mention could pull it off, with the possible exception of Anthony Foxx, and even he’s too establishment in a bad sorta way. Even he would fall in with the same-old, same-old campaign advisers, and we’d have the same-old, same-old bullshit we had with Hagan in ’14. Find me somebody with a fresh message and a campaign staff devoted to a solid ground game, and we’ll talk.
I agree wholeheartedly, Thomas and especially as someone who worked hard in both of the Gantt races in Durham- not only is NC a different state now but there are more possibilities than mentioned. What about Rev. William Barber who started Moral Mondays???
And for those who advocate a Cooper switch- well I just disagree. It is much more important to win Blount Street and attempt to really rebuild the state party infrastructure. Few of my family remains in NC, we are mostly in Virginia, Colorado and Washington State, however, we all yearn for NC Democrats to return to power and manage the great state that Democrats built!
If this is true and Hagan is sincere, I am very relieved that she’s not going to run. And agree totally that Roy Cooper should run for Senate instead of governor.
Of all of these, Anthony Foxx looks like the best possibility for making a grueling, massively abusive, massively expensive statewide campaign.
As the only Democrat to represent big blue Mecklenburg in Congress, Alma Adams has had a great chance to make herself well known in the Queen City, but her Facebook page will quickly show that she’s kept her focus on Greensboro. And which of these is a must-win-and-win-big for anyone out to beat Sen. Burr?
What an old Dome column once said about Chuck Neely is equally true about Dan Blue & Larry Hall: fantastic guys, but is there anyone outside the WRAL viewing area who would cash a check from one of them without asking for photo id?
And finally, with all due respect to Adams, Blue, Butterfield, and Mel Watt, consider that the last person born before 1950 to upset an incumbent in for a US Senate seat was Elizabeth Warren in 2012, and while that race was intense, winning as a Democrat in Massachusetts is not the same as winning as a Democrat in North Carolina.
Before that, one has to look all the way back to 2008, when Jeanne Shaheen (b. 1947) upset John Sununu in New Hampshire, and, incidentally, Kay Hagen (b. 1953) upset Liddy Dole (b. 1936).
My point being, upsetting Richard Burr (b. 1955) is going to require a candidate to travel incessantly and work 80 to 90 hours a week for an entire year, keeping poised, focused, and on message in the face of horrendous abuse in advertising and coverage. A successful candidate will need to be in touch with a vast, national donor base during every waking minute not spent shaking hands and kissing babies. It’s not an insult to any of these folks to consider their age, since that there just aren’t many people under 65 who could survive such a thing. “Time’s rude hand” is a real issue here.
The best prospect for Democrats to win the Senatorial race in 2016 is for Roy Cooper to abandon his campaign for Governor and run against Richard Burr instead. That is not likely to happen, but it is our best shot. Roy is well known and well liked throughout the State, but so is McCrory, who makes gestures of moderation from time to time. Burr is not well known or popular, even after serving in the Senate for 5 years. It would be a shame for McCrory to squeak out a win over Roy while we throw a proverbial lamb to the slaughter in a Burr versus Adams or Blue Senate race. Just my opinion, of course.
This! The powers of the governor of North Carolina are quite weak relative to those of many states…..this seat and race simply isn’t as important as that of U.S. Senator. Cooper should go after Burr for the good of his Party. If Democrats win North Carolina for the Senate, their odds of retaking the Senate are very, very good.