Thom Tillis has seen a rash of bad polls over the past week. As John Wynne noted, it’s still too early for Republicans to hit the panic button. There’s still time for the mood to change and in 2004, Richard Burr was trailing Erskine Bowles by about the same margins and came back to win.
Looking back at that 2004 Senate contest, though, illustrates how much politics has changed. At this point in the race, Burr had only been communicating a few weeks. He was still a relatively unknown Congressman from Winston-Salem. And neither he nor Bowles had launched negative ads.
Burr announced in mid-September that he would spend $6.7 million in the final six weeks of the campaign. He would define both himself and the better known Bowles, who had run in 2002 and served as Bill Clinton’s chief of staff. From the time Burr began airing commercials, Bowles’ lead began to evaporate. Once he went negative, including blaming Bowles for negotiating NAFTA, Bowles’ numbers tanked.
This year, independent groups make the Bowles-Burr spending seem quaint. Burr spent about $13 million, Bowles just a little more. Already, outside organizations have spent more than $30 million in the race.
Going down the stretch, Tillis, in particular, is counting on that support. While Burr announced his $6.7 million buy in mid-September, Tillis only has $1.3 million in air time reserved through the end of October. He’ll certainly add to that number but it won’t get near Burr’s buy. Hagan, for her part, has $3.1 million reserved in October and is up now with heavy buys.
Ten years ago, a US Senate contest was essentially an eight-week affair. It started after Labor Day and ended the first Tuesday in November. This year, interest groups have been running ads since last October. In 2004, candidates controlled their messages, defining both themselves and their opponents on their own terms. This year, both Hagan and Tillis will need to use their own money to refute the caricatures that third parties have used to define them. On that front, Hagan’s fundraising advantage gives her an edge going down the stretch.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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