There’s been a bit of gnashing of teeth among North Carolina Democrats over the election results. A number of people bemoaned the make up of the electorate. They seem to believe that a more progressive campaign with a more grassroots feel could have changed who voted, or at least motivated more Democratic voters.
That’s just not true. The electorate was relatively good for Democrats, especially for a midterm. African-Americans made up 21% of the voters, more than they’ve made up in decades. Wake and Orange Counties turned out at about 49%, five points higher than the state as a whole. Buncombe and Guilford voted at 47% and Durham at 45%. Mecklenburg was the big disappointment with only 39% turnout.
Overall, the Democratic turnout machine worked. As Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted, “Since 2010, turnout increased by 14 percent in North Carolina counties that voted for President Obama, but just 4 percent in counties that voted for Mitt Romney.” However, the electorate did not look like the one in 2012. In particular, it was older.
The dirty little secret of campaigns is that the political environment has more to do with deciding elections than anything a consultant or strategist can do. And the environment is a reflection of the collective emotional state of the country. This year, they were frustrated with the slow pace of the recovery, insecure about their personal situations and pessimistic about the future. Ebola and ISIS just amplified that uncertainty going down the stretch.
Smart campaigns read the environment and try to mitigate or amplify the impact. In the case of Hagan, they saw that the national environment was bad and they fought to focus the electorate on state issues. It almost worked, but the news cycle focused on beheadings of innocent Americans and the American victims of a West African epidemic. It was enough to push the wave that had already broken over the rest of country into North Carolina.
No message from the Hagan campaign could have reversed that wave. No innovative new media strategy would have dramatically increased turnout among millennials. Midterm electorates are going to be older with a turnout in the mid-forties, making a wave more difficult to repel for a party that depends upon younger voters.
That’s not to say there is nothing Democrats can do. They need a national message and strategy to reach white working-class voters. They should certainly beef up their new media presence. And they need to wrest control of the message and strategy away from the Washington-based consultants who would make the campaign about billionaires from Kansas instead of people from North Carolina.
Kay Hagan almost won by making this election about the General Assembly. John Edwards, the last North Carolina Democrat elected to the US Senate before Kay Hagan, won, in part, by covering incumbent Republican Lauch Faircloth with the waste from hog lagoons in eastern North Carolina. And finally, Jesse Helms stayed in the Senate for 30 years as much because of his attention to North Carolina issues as anything he did on the national stage.
I’m not saying every election needs to be localized. Some years, a national campaign may benefit Democrats. But I am saying that every campaign needs to be about the concerns voters already have instead of trying to invent concerns for them.
In North Carolina, Democrats did some things very right. They had a unified message that focused on the GOP cuts to education and tax breaks for the rich–two issues that were already troubling people across the state. They invested heavily in a field operation that dramatically increased their base voters. As a result, Democrats picked up three seats in the state house, a feat unmatched this cycle by any state with a Republican-controlled legislature.
It was a bad year for Democrats everywhere in the nation. In North Carolina, they did better than most of the country. As they argue over the results, they should remember what went right as well as what went wrong. They have an emerging infrastructure that should only get better. It needs to be nurtured, not scrapped because of a wave election.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
I think Hagan’s capitulation on the Keystone Pipeline robbed her of a very potent issue in NC-environmental degradation by fracking AND coal ash, in particular…..Forget the assault on education funding and the war on women……the missed opportunity was reminding people – in both parties-about the terrible current and potential assaults on our air and water and soil by increasingly avaricious and heedless interests. And I’m afraid that “immigration reform” -if it only encompasses this century’s version of amnesty is NOT going to be a “winning issue” for Democrats either. How about a little bit of attention on fines and sanctions for employers as part of that deal. Honestly, sometimes it really does give a person pause….
Don’t forget that the youth vote was significantly hobbled by losing the provisional ballots and by trying to move polling places away from campuses.For most college students, unless they happen to attend college near home, they were out of luck. Maybe we just do massive absentee ballot applications on college campuses in dorms, libraries, student unions, dining halls…
Nationally the Democrats have to stop being wimps. They refuse to defend the many good things that have happened under Obama and highlight the importance of the difference between Democrats and Republicans in defending our limited social safety net. And the Democrats have all but given up on defending the role of government. How about some reminders about what government does to protect the air and water we breathe and bring us Social Security and Medicare? Without messages that educate and truly inform, the less knowledgeable will continue to be manipulated by Republican scare tactics on such extraneous issues as ISOL or Ebola. It seemed like the Hagan ads on what Tillis and the legislature did the last few sessions, especially in public education, were effective. However unless you can at the same time help the Democrats on the national level look like the party people should choose, the in-state messages won’t be enough. It is astounding that the African American community voted despite Hagan’s repeatedly distancing herself from Obama. The ground game was clearly effective in some places but less so in others. Democrats have to start making that ground game effective everywhere, as Republicans now also get out the vote locally and clearly do a good job of it in many places. Doing this before the next election will require starting now given the new photo ID requirements. Democrats also have to figure out how to reach younger voters both in this state and nationally. One would think that the differences between the two parties on student loans, protecting the environment, protecting women’s reproductive rights, and affirming gay rights would motivate these voters to vote. But it isn’t happening. Seems to me that Democrats will do no more than stay even in this state, if that, unless we reach these voters. We also need to organize better in Mecklenburg and communities that have a large university presence, like Wilmington. How is it that New Hanover is becoming so increasingly red? How do we do something about that? Elizabeth Redenbaugh was an excellent candidate but lost by a wide margin in New Hanover. Why? Is there any hope for North Carolina or do we all pack up and move north?
We Democrats have to have white males in our tent are we will never be a majority party again. I know a number of people were so glad when business democrats were purged in the last couple of elections. What folks need to consider is where do you raise money to fund campaigns? You can raise just so much from Birkenstock crowd. To be honest most people want someone in office to be concerned about their jobs, education of the kids, but mostly they want to be left alone by government. We are just not providing answers for the middle class worries and this cuts across race and any other line you might want to draw in the sand.
FDR was in touch with these worries and nearly formed a permanent majority even though he did over reach trying to pack the Supreme Court and stopping gold ownership. We don’t have to be Republican lite but going hard left in a center right state to win, just have ideas that people think work for them. At that time people will come back but you can’t beat something with nothing.
“going hard left”…going hard left is talking about jobs leaving the state and absolutely no plan to replace them. Where are the business Democrats ? Business Democrats cannot outline a plan to get those jobs back or replacements? Haven’t seen it. Going left is creating a business environment where people, and a lot of North Carolinian in this category, can somehow get back the income that was lost in the Bush depression? Surely the business Democrats can do that or at the very least give us a broad plan …a ten year…a five year plan …to make that a reality. Haven’t seen it. WE know the Republicans want, do not care, because the economic mess that lingers in this State and the nation is there doing. You want white men back voting Democrat…get em a job..give em a clear and defined plan oh how and where they can get a job that pays a living wage…that they can clothe and feed the kids and send them to school…a GOOD school.
I for one do not care and I think most voters in this state do not care where the jobs…jobs plan…economic plan that offers a future..a REAL future not BS…comes from the Birkenstock crowd or the Business Democrats but until you can talk to voters about what they need the GOP will control the message, the economy, the air we breath, the water we drink and the politics of this State. Sorry but I do think it is time for a little good old American Jacksonian populism. Hagan could not talk the talk because she did not believe it and voters knew it. She lost The era and politics of The Jim’s(Martin and Hunt) is over and gone for good. Easley and Perdue saw to that. Accept it and go to work.