Prognosticators watching the North Carolina legislative races believe that Democrats’ best hope of overcoming the GOP’s veto proof majority lies with the House. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 35-15 majority. Democrats would need to win six seats to sustain a veto and eleven seats to win a majority. The majority is a very steep hill. Good campaigns and a favorable political environment might get them past the veto threshold, though.
According to our maps, Republicans hold six seats where Democrats have registration advantage of 10% or more. However, four of those districts are in rural areas, including three in eastern North Carolina where Jessiecrats still reside. To win those seats, Democrats will need to hold 80% of the Democrats and hope that the traditionally conservative unaffiliated voters split between the parties.
In addition, Republicans hold one seat where Democrats have a registration advantage of eight points and three seats where Democrats have a four point registration advantage. These districts are a mix of rural areas with exurban parts that may start trending Democratic but aren’t there yet. They’re all tough but could be competitive with the right candidates and campaigns.
There are also seven Republican held districts where the GOP registration advantage is less than 5%. Of those, three have large urban populations, including one in Wake, one in Guilford and one in New Hanover. Another one is held by President Pro-tem Phil Berger.
In some of the districts where Democrats should be competing, candidates have failed to raise substantial money, putting their registration advantage in jeopardy. Republicans in most of those districts have put together substantial war chests, bolstering their chances.
However, Democrats still have strong candidates in a number of races. In SD 1, where Democrats hold a 20% advantage in registration, Democrat Cole Phelps has outraised incumbent Bob Stenberg. Mack Paul, whose district is split between Wake and Franklin County, has swamped his incumbent opponent, Johnny Mac Alexander, by raising more than $350,000 to Alexander’s $43,000. In District 24, attorney J. D. Wooten has outraised his opponent this year, though he’s at a substantial deficit in cash on hand. Helen Probst Mills has kept pace with her incumbent opponent, Tom Mcinnes, and had double his cash on hand at the end of the second quarter. In Guilford County, Michael Garrett has kept pace with incumbent Republican Trudy Wade, though she enjoys a CoH advantage of $75,000. In Mecklenburg County, Natasha Marcus is outraising incumbent Jeff Tarte. And out in the far west, former Navy submarine captain and high school teacher Bob Kuppers has doubled the amount his opponent, incumbent Jim Davis, has raised.
In addition, Kirk DeViere in Fayetteville is raising enough money to be competitive against Wesley Meredith. Meredith has huge war chest but that district enjoys a 15% Democratic advantage in registration. DeViere doesn’t need the most money, but he does need enough.
Also, Jen Magnum, who is running against Phil Berger, has raised enough money to drive a message in a district where Republicans hold a three-point registration advantage. In the newly drawn district, she’ll force Berger to spend his war chest protecting his seat instead of shoring up incumbents. Former Wilmington Mayor Harper Peterson is also raising money in a district almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. He brings name recognition and a track record to the race that could help him in November.
Democrats have a harder road in the Senate than they do in the House. However, Republicans have no viable pick-up targets in Senate so they will be playing defense across the state. Democrats have enough strong candidates to break the veto proof majority if the political environment holds. Winning a majority, though, seems a tall order.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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