Davie County is a small, rural county located in the North Carolina Piedmont. The county seat is Mocksville. The nearest major city is Winston-Salem, located northeast of the county.
Like many counties in this region, Davie is strongly Republican. With a strong campaign Republicans normally top 70% of the vote here. The Republicanism of Davie County is not a new development; it harkens back to the post-Civil War Reconstruction era. The last time Davie opted for a Democratic candidate for president was in 1940, during FDR’s bid for a third term. In 2012, Mitt Romney won every precinct in the state, including Mocksville, which is occasionally competitive for Democrats.
1988: R+36 (Solid Republican)
1992: R+31 (Solid Republican)
1996: R+45 (Solid Republican)
2000: R+47 (Solid Republican)
2004: R+46 (Solid Republican)
2008: R+46 (Solid Republican)
2012: R+47 (Solid Republican)
Forecast: Davie has always been solidly Republican, and this is expected to remain the case for a long time to come. The 2000s decade brought with it a strong growth rate of 18.39% in the county, if this growth continues then Davie’s political tendencies will likely become more moderate. Many counties in this region of North Carolina exhibited a strong reaction to the candidacy of Barack Obama. Interestingly, this was not evident in Davie County. This could be seen as a sign of a) polarization, or inelasticity or b) the political leanings of the county’s newcomers. The latter is probably irrelevant, as the current census estimates portray a vastly reduced growth rate within the county. And barring high growth or sweeping demographic change, Davie will remain solidly Republican for a long time to come.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org.