Senate District 15 – Johnny Mac Alexander (R) vs. Tom Bradshaw (D)
This has been a race to watch ever since the present occupant of this seat, Neal Hunt, announced that he was going to retire. Since then, this race has seen many twists and turns. Republicans had a strong candidate in Rep. Jim Fulghum, who sadly had to withdraw from the race because of cancer and died just three weeks later. My initial analysis, posted just a day before Fulghum withdrew, was that the GOP should be slightly favored here.
That still stands, but Democrats have a strong candidate in Tom Bradshaw, former mayor of Raleigh and NC Secretary of Transportation, and he’s been given a running head start. Republicans had to scramble to find a replacement for Fulghum and in the end they came up with Johnny Mac Alexander, a prominent businessman in the ITB area who runs a well-known truck dealership. Alexander ran for State Senate before in the strongly Democratic SD-16 in 2008, but lost to Josh Stein. This year, he should be much more competitive, and his ability to self-fund will be vital in order to overcome Bradshaw’s early lead in the money race.
This is the most Republican of the Wake County districts, containing plenty of wealthy ITB precincts and conservative-leaning rural areas also. It also takes in some liberal parts of Raleigh. The district narrowly opted for McCain over Obama in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, Mitt Romney carried it by 7 points, Pat McCrory carried it by 19. Key to this race will be independent voters, who tend to lean GOP but could be persuaded by a Jim Hunt-style, business-friendly moderate like Bradshaw.
What Bradshaw needs is a big victory at the top of the ticket in Wake County. A recently released poll of likely Wake County voters by PPP found Kay Hagan leading Thom Tillis by 12 in Wake County, with Sean Haugh included. The same poll shows all the GOP county commissioners trailing for reelection. It looks like Democrats are losing voters once again because of midterm turnout dynamics, but are making up for it by doing better with those who do turn out in midterms – the same moderate suburbanites who voted for Republicans up and down the ballot in Wake County back in 2010. At least in Wake County, then, we’re seeing an electorate that looks more like 2010 but votes more like 2012.
The problem, once again, is that Democrats are probably going to suffer from an enthusiasm gap that makes it more difficult for them to take advantage of discontent with the legislature. This, combined with what looks like a good year for the national GOP and the partisan lean of the district, gives this race a rating of Tilt Republican. But it’s a lot closer than most Republicans would like it to be right now and it’s still one to watch through November.
Counties in district: Wake (part)
District Rating: Tilts Republican
2012 Result
55.8% Hunt
44.2% Hutchinson
Voter Registration
36.3% Republican
33.6% Democrat
29.8% Unaffiliated
83.1% White
9.0% Black
8.0% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
52.8% Romney
46.0% Obama
2012 Governor
58.3% McCrory
39.3% Dalton
2010 Senate
57.5% Burr
40.1% Marshall
2008 Senate
48.7% Hagan
48.6% Dole
Social Media Support
Former Mayor Tom Bradshaw – 506
Johnny Mac Alexander – 3
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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