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Rep. Renee Ellmers has once again pushed back her decision as whether to enter the U.S. Senate race. This time, the deadline is at the end of the month. Ellmers says the wrangling over the farm bill made her rethink her decision, but nobody believes that.

So what’s going on in the Senate race? Nobody knows. It’s clear, however, that something has changed in the past month which is making some candidates rethink their prior decisions to (not) enter the race.

I think the wild card is still Jim Cain, and I have to admit I’m puzzled that we haven’t been seeing him name pop up more. There are no reports of the NRSC meeting with him. A couple of weeks ago, however, Ellmers hinted that she would support Cain if he entered the race. With Ellmers having second thoughts, is this an indication that Cain isn’t running? Does Ellmers even want to run, or is she being pushed by D.C. Republicans? If that’s the case, then why didn’t the NRSC meet with her? And if the NRSC is concerned that the unpopularity of the legislature might sink Tillis, why would they turn to Berger?

The bottom line: nobody really knows what’s going on right now. There are too many loose ends and behind-the-scenes negotiations that we’re not privy to. We do know that Tillis and Brannon are running, and Mark Harris is probably running too, but we have no idea what Ellmers, Cain, or Berger are thinking. I will say this though, I think it’s almost certain that one of them will run. We’ll know much more by the end of the month, when Ellmers and Berger will decide … hopefully.

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