Democrats got some good news from the ABC News-Washington Post poll yesterday. Mind you, good news is relative. The poll indicates that the political environment is no longer deteriorating for the party in power, not that they’re in any great shape as we head into the final six months of the mid-term cycle. 

In particular, Joe Biden’s approval rating inched up and the generic ballot is even again. Biden’s numbers improved by five points since the last poll in February, but he’s still under water by ten points. He was underwater by 18. In the generic ballot, 46% of respondents said they would vote for the Democrat, 45% for the Republican. In February, 49% preferred Republicans and 42% Democrats, so that’s significant improvement. 

That’s about as good as it gets. Inflation is still a driving factor and voters believe Republicans would do a better job of handling it than Democrats. They also trust Republicans more than Democrats on the economy in general. Midterms are generally a referendum on the party in the White House and the economy is usually the primary issue in the election. This year still looks tough for Democrats even though the environment has improved over the past two months. 

Despite what Americans think, there’s not a lot anybody could do about the inflation we’re seeing now. It’s a global phenomenon and Biden is making most of the right moves, but he’s not going to have a dramatic or immediate impact. He’ll get the blame and none of the credit. It comes with the territory. 

The only place Biden is getting relatively high marks is with the pandemic. If we continue to move back toward normal activity, the virus won’t be a drag even if it won’t be boon. That’s really all he, and the Democrats, can hope for. 

The fundamentals still favor Republicans by a pretty good measure. The first midterm election after a presidential election is almost always good for the party out of power. The economy will likely be the driving factor and the GOP still has an edge. Republicans appear more likely to vote in the election. All in all, it still looks like a good year for Republicans, but a few more polls like this one and the trend may indicate that Democrats aren’t about to suffer a blowout like 2010 or 2014.  That’s good news compared to where we’ve been.