House District 6 – Rep. Paul Tine (D) vs. Mattie Lawson (R)
Paul Tine is a member of an increasingly rare breed: a moderate Democrat holding a conservative-leaning seat in Eastern North Carolina. His district, the 6th, covers Beaufort, Hyde, Washington, and Dare counties. In 2012, Tine was elected to the House by less than 500 votes against Tea Party stalwart Mattie Lawson. A brutal primary split the Republican Party and led to Tine winning by the skin of his teeth.
Because his election in 2012 was so narrow – almost a fluke – one would expect Tine to be facing a difficult reelection this time around. Instead, Tine has compiled a moderate-to-conservative record in the House which fits his district and he looks like a formidable favorite for reelection. His Republican opponent from 2012, Lawson, has returned for a rematch, but is severely underfunded and is going to have trouble getting her message out there. The latest fundraising reports available show Tine with just over $88,000, compared to Lawson’s paltry $1,432 – an almost 63-1 financial advantage. (In 2012, money also was on the Democrat’s side; Tine spent $170,000 while Lawson spent $48,000.)
How did Tine win in 2012? A breakdown of the county-by-county vote:
Beaufort (36% of district) – 55% Lawson, 45% Tine (Lawson +1,639)
Dare (41% of district) – 52% Lawson, 48% Tine (Lawson + 528)
Hyde (7% of district) – 60% Tine, 40% Lawson (Tine +447)
Washington (16% of district) – 67% Tine, 33% Lawson (Tine +2,178)
In addition to a moderate voting record which makes him almost impossible to paint as an out-of-touch, far-left liberal, Tine can point to being ranked as the most effective freshman legislator from the minority party. Should Tine continue to hold this Republican-leaning seat, he could be the ideal Democratic candidate for Congress in the 3rd district should the seat become open with the retirement of Republican Walter Jones, another maverick.
Tine will probably never be secure in his seat, and could easily fall to a better-funded challenger in a future cycle. But this year, the incumbent’s huge cash advantage and perhaps some discontent with legislative Republicans makes it difficult to see this being the year that Tine gets replaced. Likely Democratic.
Counties in district: Beaufort (part), Dare, Hyde, Washington
District Rating: Likely Democratic
2012 Result
50.6% Tine (D)
49.4% Lawson (R)
Voter Registration
45.3% Democrat
28.4% Republican
26.1% Unaffiliated
81.7% White
15.8% Black
2.5% Other
Results in Other Elections
2012 President
57.7% Romney
41.3% Obama
2012 Governor
57.7% McCrory
39.8% Dalton
2010 Senate
60.7% Burr
37.1% Marshall
2008 Senate
51.7% Dole
45.5% Hagan
Social Media Support
Rep. Paul Tine (D) – 369
Mattie Lawson (R) – 104
Got a question? Disagree with the analysis? Feel free to chime in and post a comment below!
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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