A couple months ago, I thought people were overestimating Tillis’s chance of avoiding a runoff. While everyone else was arguing that he was the ‘inevitable’ nominee, I pointed out there was a lot of discontent on the Right and that a Tea Party conservative like Greg Brannon was a big threat to Tillis’s chances. Now, after a brief scare, the media is once again anointing Tillis as Mr. Inevitable. The polling seems to suit the media’s narrative: the Speaker is at 39% in the latest SurveyUSA poll, just short of the 40% threshold, and PPP reports that Tillis is around 50% in their current polling. This, I think, greatly overestimates Tillis’s chances. What I see is a 50/50 race … in the sense that there’s a 50/50 chance that Tillis avoids a runoff.
The Tillis camp seems to be saying the same thing, that they’re “hopeful”. It’s possible Tillis is anointed the nominee on May 6th. It’s equally possible that Tillis will fall just short, and face off against either Greg Brannon or Mark Harris. The Tillis campaign seems to think Brannon is the bigger threat, and is going after him in this mailer. If Tillis is at 50% in the polls, then such a move would be unnecessary. This seems to me to indicate that the PPP poll is, well, wrong.
Basically, what PPP is showing is what would happen if there was a game-changing moment for Tillis: an excellent performance in the debates, a great soundbite, saving a puppy from a burning house, et cetera. But nothing that beneficial has happened for Mr. Tillis. The Speaker performed adequately in the debates, but not so much that the GOP would decide to rally around him to the extent PPP suggests.
What this suggests is that, for supporters of Mr. Tillis, there is still work to do. And supporters of Dr. Brannon and Rev. Harris: take heart, the Speaker is not the inevitable nominee. But then again, he never was.
Edit: Just to be perfectly clear – I still think Tillis will be the nominee. The question is whether he’ll win in May or July. If July, then he emerges from the primary with a lot of battle scars. Hagan and the Democrats really, really want a runoff.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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