SurveyUSA has been busy lately; this is the third poll they’ve conducted on the North Carolina Senate race in as many weeks. The firm previously conducted surveys on behalf of Civitas and WRAL. Because this latest poll appears to use the same voter screen as the WRAL poll, we’ll use that one as the basis of comparison. The WRAL poll was conducted from March 17th to March 19th; the poll for Time Warner Cable was conducted from March 27th to March 31st, so any change would reflect events in that time frame.
General election
47% Harris, 43% Hagan
47% Brannon, 45% Hagan
46% Alexander, 44% Hagan
46% Grant, 44% Hagan
46% Tillis, 45% Hagan
The listing of the matchups above is not random, but a reflection of how well the Republican candidate performs against Hagan. At the top is Mark Harris, who leads by 4 points, the only candidate with a lead outside the margin of error. Tillis is at the bottom; he still leads, but only by a point. Does this mean Tillis is the least electable Republican? No. The fact of the matter is, he is the best known of the Republican challengers, and he has been ‘in the arena’, so to speak, and has earned some scars. It would be disingenuous to say that, by virtue of his larger lead, that Brannon is more electable in the fall. Chances are, if voters come to know these other Republican candidates, they will like them a little less.
Republican Primary
(Numbers in parentheses indicate change in support from last poll)
Undecided – 34% (+11)
Tillis – 23% (-5)
Brannon – 15% (no change)
Harris – 11% (+5)
Alexander – 6% (-1)
Grant – 6% (-5)
Bradshaw – 1% (-3)
Snyder – 3% (-1)
Kryn – 2% (-1)
Look at all those undecided voters – over a third of the GOP primary electorate. Tillis still leads, but has lost 5 points from last poll, Brannon’s support is unchanged, while Harris has gained. If undecided voters break down the same as their decided counterparts, then Tillis will place first with 34% of the vote, while Brannon will place second with 23%, and a runoff will commence in July. Obviously, it would be in the best interest of the GOP to have Tillis win outright, without a runoff.
Winners in this poll: Thom Tillis and Greg Brannon. At this point, it looks like a runoff between these two. But the biggest winner in this poll is Mark Harris. He’s now in a very solid third place, and if he can get up on the air then he can maybe make the runoff with Tillis. Most people expected a Tillis/Harris showdown, but so far the preacher’s campaign has been underwhelming. He could be surging at just the right time. Harris also leads Hagan by the biggest margin, so he can claim not only to have the momentum, but to be the ‘most electable’ Republican.
Losers: Tillis is both a winner and a loser, by virtue of his placing first but falling short of the 40% threshold. Heather Grant is also a loser, she’s now tied with fourth and has lost 5 points from last poll. And the biggest loser, of course, is Kay Hagan. She trails everybody and has a 38/50 approval rating. That’s pretty terrible. She should be a dead duck come November, but a chaotic GOP primary will give her a fighting chance at victory. The next couple of weeks will determine how tough Hagan’s path to reelection will be.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
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