Poll indicates a good political environment for Democrats in North Carolina

Governor Josh Stein gets high marks for his first six months.

Catawba College released a poll last week that should have North Carolina Democrats feeling better about the future. Donald Trump is getting less popular in the state while Governor Josh Stein and former Governor Roy Cooper, a possible US Senate candidate, get high marks from respondents. The poll also reveals why Thom Tillis probably got out of the race.

Trump is now underwater in the state with an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 50%. That seems about right. He’s never been a really popular president but he was chosen as the lesser of evils among the state’s swing voters.

The poll gives insight into MAGA in the state. Thirty percent of the people strongly approve of Trump. Those are the sheeple. They would, and might, follow him over a cliff. Lincoln described them as the people you can fool all of the time. They make up 65% of the GOP and about 20% of the independent voters.

Trump’s problems lie with the 47% of independents who strongly disapprove of him. Some of those folks almost certainly voted for him in November. In 2026, they aren’t likely to show up and may vote for Democrats if they do. His overall approval rating with independents is underwater by 23%. That doesn’t bode well for Republicans in the midterm.

Governor Josh Stein is still enjoying the support of a majority of the people. His approval rating is positive by an impressive 27%, 53% approve and 26% disapprove. Most impressive, though, is his approval among Republicans. They split evenly, despite our highly politicized environment. Thirty-nine percent approve of the job he’s doing and 40% disapprove. His approval rate among independents is positive by 34%. That’s a damn good report card for the first six months of his term.

Stein has shown remarkably good political instincts and skills. He’s focused heavily on the state’s most pressing, or at least high profile, concern, hurricane recovery. He’s spent a disproportionate amount of time in western North Carolina, meeting people and business and making himself one of the region’s strongest advocates. He’s also made sure everybody saw him out there with ubiquitous social media posts and headlines.

Stein has also avoided any high-profile spats with Republicans. He hasn’t fought with Trump directly even though he’s criticized his policies like cutting Medicaid and heavy-handed immigration enforcement. He’s stayed out of the fray as the Republican legislature showed its own incompetence by failing to pass a budget. He’s vetoed several controversial bills concerning DEI, immigration, and transgender rights, even though the legislature may override him. He’s kept the disputes muted so even the most controversial topics aren’t leaking into the mainstream, even if he might see them in ads during his re-election campaign in 2028.

Former Governor Roy Cooper enjoys similarly high approval ratings. Despite eight bruising years in the Governor’s Mansion, more than half of the people still approve of Cooper. Less than a third disapprove. He has a net approval rating of 28% among independent voters. Those numbers are incredibly positive for a politician with a well-known a track record.

If Cooper decides to run for Senate, Republicans will likely have a difficult time making attacks stick. People are skeptical of political ads anyway and Cooper is already well-defined. His positive numbers will probably provide him a bit of teflon that would not be afforded a lesser-known candidate.

The poll also offers insight into numbers that probably helped persuade Thom Tillis to retire. He was underwater by ten points, 44% to 34%. A majority of independents, 52%, disapprove of the job he is doing and only 26% approve. Among Republicans almost a quarter disapproved. Those would be daunting numbers of overcome in what is likely to be a tough political environment of Republicans.

We’re very early into the 2026 cycle, but Democrats in North Carolina have reason to hope. Their most high-profile political leaders enjoy high approval ratings. The president’s numbers are going the wrong way and an incumbent US Senator has been forced to retire. For the next two months, people will pay less attention to state politics, especially with the legislature gone. In the fall, they will likely turn to their attention to who is running for what. Not much will likely shift dramatically either way between now and December, at least at the state level. Politically, that’s a good place to be for Democrats in the North Carolina.