They just don't like Tillis

Another bad poll shows Tillis struggling, especially with the independents who determine North Carolina elections.

According to a recent Carolina Journal poll, Republican Senator Thom Tillis is in trouble. Republicans like to say that he’s underestimated as a politician with a history of beating the odds. That’s not really true. He’s really a mediocre politician who has gotten lucky—that’s not to say he won’t again.

The poll shows Tillis underwater by 20 points, 26% favorable and 46% unfavorable. It also shows that only 44% of Republicans have a favorable impression of him. Most significantly, he’s underwater with independent voters by 37 points with a solid majority, 55%, holding an unfavorable view of him.

The poll also shows evidence that the political environment in general is beginning to deteriorate for Republicans in the state. Donald Trump’s favorability rating is underwater by five points despite having won the state just over six months ago. The party in the White House generally has a difficult time in midterms, especially if the president is unpopular.

In contrast, leading Democrats in the state are popular. Governor Josh Stein has an approval rating of 48% with only 24% disapproving. Former Governor Roy Cooper is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 37%. Democrats hope that Cooper will challenge Tillis next year.

The poll didn’t test former Congressman Wiley Nickel, the only announced Democratic candidate for the Senate race. It also didn’t test any of the potential primary challengers to Tillis. Neither Nickel nor any Republicans would likely have significant name recognition at this point.

Cooper is a strong candidate because he’s both fully vetted and well-defined in the minds of voters. Only 11% of the respondents said they had no opinion of Cooper, far less than the 18% who said the same about Tillis. Cooper has run successfully in the state for two decades. Republicans will have a hard time defining him because voters believe they know him. That’s what makes him such a strong candidate for the 2026 race.

In contrast, any other Democrat will be ill-defined. Republicans will likely be able drive up negatives faster and for far less money than they could with Cooper. The race would more quickly reach the point of being the choice between lesser of evils and more dependent on the political environment than if Cooper becomes the candidate.

Tillis, for his part, has taken a lot of the work out of demonizing him. He’s seen by both sides as a political opportunist and a man with few political convictions. He will never get his favorability rating in positive territory and will be dependent on an improving political environment and the ability to define his opponent, hence the strength of Cooper’s candidacy.

The 2026 election is still a year and a half away and a lot will change between now and then. For Tillis to win re-election, he probably needs for the political environment to improve and he needs opponents with relatively unknown profiles. A GOP primary, especially against underfunded opponents without the resources to further erode his favorability ratings, could prove helpful in improving his standing with Republican voters. However, he will have a difficult time if Cooper decides he wants to finish his political career as a US Senator.